CAJ | 학술논문

基于耕地数量保护视角，构建虚拟变量模型，采用“自回归法”，以珠三角为例，评价了1992—2008年中国巨型城市区域耕地保护政策的效果。结果显示：耕地政策变量通不过t检验；二、三产业增加值占GDP比重和农产品生产价格指数均与非农建设占用耕地数量呈负相关，且分别通过5％和10％的t检验。与全国平均水平相比，耕地保护制度对珠三角地区建设占用耕地数量的遏制作用不显著，遏制效果明显低于全国平均水平，但非农经济发展对土地投入的依赖程度在下降，农产品价格的上升仍有利于提高农民个体的耕地保护积极性。认为巨型城市区域耕地保护应转向生态安全、粮食安全、经济安全与社会安全的综合视角。
기우경지수량보호시각，구건허의변량모형，채용“자회귀법”，이주삼각위례，평개료1992—2008년중국거형성시구역경지보호정책적효과。결과현시：경지정책변량통불과t검험；이、삼산업증가치점GDP비중화농산품생산개격지수균여비농건설점용경지수량정부상관，차분별통과5％화10％적t검험。여전국평균수평상비，경지보호제도대주삼각지구건설점용경지수량적알제작용불현저，알제효과명현저우전국평균수평，단비농경제발전대토지투입적의뢰정도재하강，농산품개격적상승잉유리우제고농민개체적경지보호적겁성。인위거형성시구역경지보호응전향생태안전、양식안전、경제안전여사회안전적종합시각。
From the perspective of quantity protection, this paper, taking the Pearl River Delta as the case study area, evaluates the performance of cultivated land protection policies in China＇s mega-city regions from 1992 to 2008, by constructing dummy variable model and applying method of autoregression analysis. The results indicate that the variables of the polices are not statistically significant even at the 15% level% while variables of proportion of secondary and tertiary industry added value to GDP and agricultural product price index are significant at the of 5%, 10% respectively, and all have a negative relationship with dependent variable. It is concluded that compared with the average national conditions, effect of reducing farmland conversion is not significant in the Pearl River Delta, but dependence on land input of non-agricultural economy is declining, and that the rising of farm product price also makes for the stimulation of the self-employed farmers enthusiasm for protecting cultivated land. The paper holds that cultivated land protection in mega-city regions should be turned to a comprehensive perspective of ecological, food, economic and social security, rather than single food security view.