CAJ | 학술논문

本文在Gregorio和Wolf（1994）模型的基础上，结合中国实际，将城乡二元结构下的劳动力市场分割和政府需求考虑进去，对巴拉萨-萨缪尔森效应进行了扩展研究。从全国整体和分区域层次，利用1995—2010年中国28个省份的面板数据对人民币实际汇率的长期波动进行了实证研究。结果表明，人民币确实存在巴拉萨-萨缪尔森效应，生产率的提升促进人民币升值，而部门间的收入差距阻碍人民币升值。同时，巴拉萨-萨缪尔森效应存在区域差异，在西、中、东部依次递减，其中西部地区政府消费所引致的投资的贡献度较大。
본문재Gregorio화Wolf（1994）모형적기출상，결합중국실제，장성향이원결구하적노동력시장분할화정부수구고필진거，대파랍살-살무이삼효응진행료확전연구。종전국정체화분구역층차，이용1995—2010년중국28개성빈적면판수거대인민폐실제회솔적장기파동진행료실증연구。결과표명，인민폐학실존재파랍살-살무이삼효응，생산솔적제승촉진인민폐승치，이부문간적수입차거조애인민폐승치。동시，파랍살-살무이삼효응존재구역차이，재서、중、동부의차체감，기중서부지구정부소비소인치적투자적공헌도교대。
This paper studies on the extension of Balassa - Samuelson Hypothesis. Based on the model pro- posed by Gregorio ＆ Wolf in 1994, combined with China＇s actual conditions, we take demand sides specifically government consumption, labor market segmentation under dual structure in urban and rural economy into ac- count. From the level of the whole country and different regions, the paper empirically studies the RMB ex- change rate fluctuation with the panel date of 28 provinces from 1995 to 2010. The result shows that Balassa - Samuelson Hypothesis does exist in RMB, and the improvement of productivity promotes the appreciation of RMB, however, the effect of income gap is negative. Meanwhile, the Balassa - Samuelson effect has regional differences in the western, central and eastern regions. For the western areas, the investment caused by govern- ment consumption has a great contribution to it.