CAJ | 학술논문

本文在借鉴Driscoll（2004）的银行信贷供给冲击识别的方法基础之上，主要尝试验证了如下命题：中国的金融市场化改革，是否如理论预期的那样逐渐完善了金融市场，从而弱化了银行信贷渠道的效应？实证结果发现，虽然信贷渠道总体上是显著存在的，但信贷渠道的效应变化随改革时段不同而呈倒“U”形特征。深人的分析认为，倒“U”形关系表明中国的市场化进程在改革后期有减弱趋势，且金融市场化改革并未有效的催生金融创新。从金融改革的角度看，本文的意义主要在于两点：一是利率市场化改革是整体经济市场化改革的有机组成部分，单独推进利率市场化的效果是令人怀疑的；二是金融改革必须具有诱致金融创新的功能，不能有效促进金融创新的金融改革将无法改变实体经济对银行信贷的严重依赖性。
본문재차감Driscoll（2004）적은행신대공급충격식별적방법기출지상，주요상시험증료여하명제：중국적금융시장화개혁，시부여이론예기적나양축점완선료금융시장，종이약화료은행신대거도적효응？실증결과발현，수연신대거도총체상시현저존재적，단신대거도적효응변화수개혁시단불동이정도“U”형특정。심인적분석인위，도“U”형관계표명중국적시장화진정재개혁후기유감약추세，차금융시장화개혁병미유효적최생금융창신。종금융개혁적각도간，본문적의의주요재우량점：일시리솔시장화개혁시정체경제시장화개혁적유궤조성부분，단독추진리솔시장화적효과시령인부의적；이시금융개혁필수구유유치금융창신적공능，불능유효촉진금융창신적금융개혁장무법개변실체경제대은행신대적엄중의뢰성。
Considering the difficulty of indentifying the credit shock in the bank credit channel process, based on the Driscoll （2004）＇s idea, in this paper, we construct a new method to separate the credit supply shock in China. Then we give a proposition about the relationship between bank credit and output of China, and empiri- cally analyze the proposition, including the total amount and the period of time. The results show that from the reform, the credit channel is significant existing in general. However, for the financial market reform process in different period, the empirical results indicate that the relationship between credit and output is inverted ＂ U＂ shape. We think it should owe to the incomplete marketization reform of China, especially in the recent reform period, which the financial marketization reform did not lead to financial innovation. For the policy, the signifi- cance of this paper mainly lies in two points ： one is the interest rate marketization reform is a part of the whole economic marketization reform, so separate interest rate marketization is not feasible. The second is that a suc- cessful financial reform must have induced financial innovation function, otherwise, the real economy will heavi- ly reliance on the bank credit, if financial reform cannot effectively promote financial innovation.