CAJ | 학술논문

文章基于29个新兴市场国家的数据，研究了三元悖论配置与政策取向对宏观经济增长、金融稳定以及金融危机的作用。研究结果表明，无论三元悖论配置如何，汇率稳定性与金融开放性均对新兴市场国家的宏观经济增长、金融稳定发挥正向作用，而货币政策独立性则不利于金融稳定。汇率稳定性和货币政策独立性的实际政策取向仅促进了宏观经济增长，汇率稳定性与金融开放性的政策取向对宏观经济增长和金融稳定均有正向意义，而货币政策独立性与金融开放性的政策取向却不利于经济增长和金融稳定。
문장기우29개신흥시장국가적수거，연구료삼원패론배치여정책취향대굉관경제증장、금융은정이급금융위궤적작용。연구결과표명，무론삼원패론배치여하，회솔은정성여금융개방성균대신흥시장국가적굉관경제증장、금융은정발휘정향작용，이화폐정책독립성칙불리우금융은정。회솔은정성화화폐정책독립성적실제정책취향부촉진료굉관경제증장，회솔은정성여금융개방성적정책취향대굉관경제증장화금융은정균유정향의의，이화폐정책독립성여금융개방성적정책취향각불리우경제증장화금융은정。
Based on the data of 29 emerging market countries, this paper ana- lyzes the effects of trilemma configuration and policy orientation on macroeeonomic growth, financial stability and financial crises. It comes to the following conclusions： regardless of the trilemma configuration, the stability of exchange rates and financial opening-up play the positive role in macroeconomic growth and financial stability in emerging market countries, while the independence of monetary policy is not condu- cive to financial stability; real policy orientation with regard to the stability of ex- change rates and the independence of monetary policy only promotes C growth, and the policy orientation with regard to the stability of exchange rates and financial opening-up plays the positive role in macroeconomic growth and financial stability, while policy orientation with regard to the independence o[ monetary policy and financial opening-up is not beneficial to economic growth and financial stability.