CAJ | 학술논문

本文运用动态因子模型分析了1994年1月至2013年4月中国大陆东部、中部、东北和西部四个地区31个省市居民消费价格指数波动的地区差异和同步性。在研究中通过对居民消费价格指数进行因素分解，提取了区域公共因子和省市特殊因子。从区域公共因子的特征看，区域因子能解释区域内居民消费价格指数波动的绝大部分．各区域居民消费价格指数波动既有相似性又存在一定的区域特征。对区域因子互动关系的研究发现，我国东北部地区居民消费价格指数波动先行于其他地区。伴随着我国经济的不断发展，经济不发达地区的物价变化与经济发展水平较高地区物价变化的同步性越来越密切。
본문운용동태인자모형분석료1994년1월지2013년4월중국대륙동부、중부、동북화서부사개지구31개성시거민소비개격지수파동적지구차이화동보성。재연구중통과대거민소비개격지수진행인소분해，제취료구역공공인자화성시특수인자。종구역공공인자적특정간，구역인자능해석구역내거민소비개격지수파동적절대부분．각구역거민소비개격지수파동기유상사성우존재일정적구역특정。대구역인자호동관계적연구발현，아국동북부지구거민소비개격지수파동선행우기타지구。반수착아국경제적불단발전，경제불발체지구적물개변화여경제발전수평교고지구물개변화적동보성월래월밀절。
Based on the consumer price index of 31 provinces of mainland China from January 1999 to April 2013 , with the help of dynamic factor model （DFM）, the difference and synchronization of CPI fluctuations is studied at a regional perspective. The regional common factors and the provincial special factors are extracted from DFM by factor decomposition. The results show that the regional factors contribute greatly to the CPI fluctuations of the region and that there are regional characteristics in the CPI fluctuations of 31 provincial CPI. The study of the interaction between the regional factors shows that the CPI fluctuations in northeastern is the leader among 4 region of China. With the development of China＇s economy, the price fluctuation level of the economically underdeveloped regions is gradually in line with the fluctuations in economically developed regions.