统计研究
統計研究
통계연구
Statistical Research
2013年
10期
40~45
,共null页
住房市场 价量相关 35个大中城市 限购政策
住房市場 價量相關 35箇大中城市 限購政策
주방시장 개량상관 35개대중성시 한구정책
Housing Market; Price-volume Correlation; 35 Metropolitans; House Purchase Limit Policy
本文在分析住房市场价量关系经验和理论的基础上,通过构建VAR模型,对35个大中城市住房市场价格和交易量的相关性以及相互作用进行了实证研究；然后考虑限购政策对价量的影响,分析限购前后价量相关系数和Granger关系的变化；最后,通过拟合成分分析,找出价量相关性的主导因素.研究结果显示,我国大部分沿海发达城市,住房市场存在由滞后的价格变化导致的价量正相关关系,其根本原因是首付款增强效应和价格预期作用,这表明限购政策对于抑制我国城市住房市场的价格增长有一定效果,但对价量互动关系影响不大.
本文在分析住房市場價量關繫經驗和理論的基礎上,通過構建VAR模型,對35箇大中城市住房市場價格和交易量的相關性以及相互作用進行瞭實證研究；然後攷慮限購政策對價量的影響,分析限購前後價量相關繫數和Granger關繫的變化；最後,通過擬閤成分分析,找齣價量相關性的主導因素.研究結果顯示,我國大部分沿海髮達城市,住房市場存在由滯後的價格變化導緻的價量正相關關繫,其根本原因是首付款增彊效應和價格預期作用,這錶明限購政策對于抑製我國城市住房市場的價格增長有一定效果,但對價量互動關繫影響不大.
본문재분석주방시장개량관계경험화이론적기출상,통과구건VAR모형,대35개대중성시주방시장개격화교역량적상관성이급상호작용진행료실증연구；연후고필한구정책대개량적영향,분석한구전후개량상관계수화Granger관계적변화；최후,통과의합성분분석,조출개량상관성적주도인소.연구결과현시,아국대부분연해발체성시,주방시장존재유체후적개격변화도치적개량정상관관계,기근본원인시수부관증강효응화개격예기작용,저표명한구정책대우억제아국성시주방시장적개격증장유일정효과,단대개량호동관계영향불대.
Based on the evidence and theories of housing price-volume correlation, this paper empirically analyzed housing price-volume correlation and interaction in 35 metropolitans in China by using VAR model. This paper also demonstrated the changes of relation between correlation coefficient and Granger by eonsidering the effects of the house purchase limit policy on housing price and volume. Finally, the authors explored the main factors of price-volume correlation. The results showed that there were positive correlations exist induced by lagged price dynamics in most Chinese costal developed cities. The underlying reasons were down-payment effect and price anticipation. It indicated house purchase limit policy was effective to restrain the rise of house price. But it is difficult to change the price-volume interaction.
