CAJ | 학술논문

本文采用非参数K—M方法分析1995—2010年中国出口数据发现，中国出口贸易关系生存时间较短，持续期中位数只有2年，存在“门槛效应”，贸易关系在建立初期的生存率比较低，4年以后失败的概率大幅降低。基于CoxPH模型的进一步分析发现：经济规模、地理距离等传统引力变量以及首次出口额、竞争力、多元化等产品特征变量对中国出口贸易关系生存影响较大；此外，人民币汇率也是影响出口贸易关系生存的重要变量。这些结论为当前制定稳定出口增长政策提供了一些重要的经验支持。
본문채용비삼수K—M방법분석1995—2010년중국출구수거발현，중국출구무역관계생존시간교단，지속기중위수지유2년，존재“문함효응”，무역관계재건립초기적생존솔비교저，4년이후실패적개솔대폭강저。기우CoxPH모형적진일보분석발현：경제규모、지리거리등전통인력변량이급수차출구액、경쟁력、다원화등산품특정변량대중국출구무역관계생존영향교대；차외，인민폐회솔야시영향출구무역관계생존적중요변량。저사결론위당전제정은정출구증장정책제공료일사중요적경험지지。
After analyzing China＇s 1995-2010 export data using non-parameter Kaplan-Meier method, this paper discovers that the survival duration of China＇s export relationships is relatively short with a median of only two years, and there is also a threshold effect for this duration. The newly established trade relationships have a relatively low survival rate, but four years after the foundation the failure rate declines significantly. Furthermore, using Cox Proportional Hazard model, this empirical research shows that the traditional gravitation factors such as economic scale and geographic distance have a strong impact on the survival duration, and so do the product characteristics including initial export volume, product competitiveness, and product diversity. Moreover, RMB exchange rate is one of the key influential factors. These findings can provide some credible empirical reference for China to formulate export stabilization policies.