CAJ | 학술논문

房地产价格的波动关系国民经济的健康发展和人民生活的和谐稳定，判断房价有无泡沫、泡沫程度大小是实施房地产调控政策的一个重要基础。在综合考虑经济基本面和心理预期因素影响的基础上，对1999～2011年间35个大中城市的房价建立动态面板数据模型，借助迭代回归方法计算均衡价格，将由经济基本面决定的均衡价格与实际价格进行比较，从而测算出各个城市房价泡沫度。结论表明近几年我国大多数城市房价泡沫有加大趋势，但不同城市之间房价泡沫程度差异较大。因此，房地产市场调控应考虑城市之间的差异性，采取差异化的调控政策。
방지산개격적파동관계국민경제적건강발전화인민생활적화해은정，판단방개유무포말、포말정도대소시실시방지산조공정책적일개중요기출。재종합고필경제기본면화심리예기인소영향적기출상，대1999～2011년간35개대중성시적방개건립동태면판수거모형，차조질대회귀방법계산균형개격，장유경제기본면결정적균형개격여실제개격진행비교，종이측산출각개성시방개포말도。결론표명근궤년아국대다수성시방개포말유가대추세，단불동성시지간방개포말정도차이교대。인차，방지산시장조공응고필성시지간적차이성，채취차이화적조공정책。
There are important relationships between the real estate price fluctuation and the healthy development of national economy and people＇ s life of harmony and stability. Identifying the degree of real estate price bubble is an important basic for the real estate regulation policy. In consideration of the economic fundamentals and psychological factors, we found a dynamic panel data model for 35 large and medium -sized cities in 1999 ~ 2011 based on the method of iterative regression. With the help of this model, we can get the equilibrium price for every city, then we measure each city＇ s housing price bubbles through comparing the real price and the equilibrium price. Results indicate that the bubble has an increasing trend in recent years, but there are obvious differences between cities. So real estate market regulation policy should take account of the differences between cities.