CAJ | 학술논문

基于1998～2007年间数据，建立了一个灰色局势决策模型。结果表明，在过去的10年间，投资房地产的策略最优，不仅优于投资股票市场，也优于同时投资股票市场和房地产市场。这与我国近10年来房地产市场的繁荣有关，也与我国股票市场尚不具备使投资者获取“持久性收入”的条件有关。我国房地产市场与股票市场之间，存在的不是财富效应，而是替代效应和挤占效应。
기우1998～2007년간수거，건립료일개회색국세결책모형。결과표명，재과거적10년간，투자방지산적책략최우，불부우우투자고표시장，야우우동시투자고표시장화방지산시장。저여아국근10년래방지산시장적번영유관，야여아국고표시장상불구비사투자자획취“지구성수입”적조건유관。아국방지산시장여고표시장지간，존재적불시재부효응，이시체대효응화제점효응。
Based on the data from the year 1998 to 2007, this article sets up a gray - situation decision model, which shows that in the past 10 years the strategy of investing in real estate is the best, better than investing in stock and than investing in both simultaneously. This article believes that it is not only related to the prosperity of the real estate market for the past 10 years but also to the stock market which can not entitle the investors to gain ＂durable income＂. In China, it is the alternative effect and squeezable effect rather than the wealth effect that exist between the real estate market and the stock market.