亚太经济
亞太經濟
아태경제
Asia-Pacific Economic Review
2013年
6期
3~8
,共null页
东亚 经济周期 协动性
東亞 經濟週期 協動性
동아 경제주기 협동성
East Asia, Economic Business Cycle, Co-movement
本文实证结果表明：东亚主要国家和地区尚未脱离世界主周期运行，其中除中国与印尼外，东亚其他国家（地区）存在共同周期，中国与世界经济周期的反向波动明显，但与东亚国家（地区）存在较强的协同波动趋势；新兴工业化国家在本文设定的三个时间段中表现不一；东盟四国存在次区域经济周期，而且随着时间推移，其协动性在逐渐加强。东亚国家包括中国在内，应抓住机遇，实现新一轮的经济增长。
本文實證結果錶明：東亞主要國傢和地區尚未脫離世界主週期運行，其中除中國與印尼外，東亞其他國傢（地區）存在共同週期，中國與世界經濟週期的反嚮波動明顯，但與東亞國傢（地區）存在較彊的協同波動趨勢；新興工業化國傢在本文設定的三箇時間段中錶現不一；東盟四國存在次區域經濟週期，而且隨著時間推移，其協動性在逐漸加彊。東亞國傢包括中國在內，應抓住機遇，實現新一輪的經濟增長。
본문실증결과표명：동아주요국가화지구상미탈리세계주주기운행，기중제중국여인니외，동아기타국가（지구）존재공동주기，중국여세계경제주기적반향파동명현，단여동아국가（지구）존재교강적협동파동추세；신흥공업화국가재본문설정적삼개시간단중표현불일；동맹사국존재차구역경제주기，이차수착시간추이，기협동성재축점가강。동아국가포괄중국재내，응조주궤우，실현신일륜적경제증장。
The empirical results show that： The common cycle does exist in East Asia except for China and Indonesia, China fluctuates reversely with the world economic cycle obviously , but show a more and more strong collaborative fluctuation trend with the east Asia; Three Newly industrialized economies perform differ-ently during three time phases; There exists a sub-regional economic cycle in ASEAN countries and over time co-movement has been gradually strengthening. Common shock does exist, but the influence becomes gradually weaker because globalization, country specific factor has played a significant role in east Asian countries.
