中国人口资源与环境
中國人口資源與環境
중국인구자원여배경
China Polulation.Resources and Environment
2013年
11期
30~35
,共null页
低碳农业 农业碳排放 收敛性 SBM模型
低碳農業 農業碳排放 收斂性 SBM模型
저탄농업 농업탄배방 수렴성 SBM모형
low carbon agriculture; agricultural carbon emissions; convergence; SBM model
为推动资源节约型和环境友好型社会的发展,低碳农业成为农业发展的必然选择.虽然低碳农业理念已有推广,但是对于中国低碳农业发展状况和存在问题研究较少.本文使用2000-2010年的面板数据,选用农业碳排放模型、包络数据分析法中的SBM模型和效率收敛性模型,通过三步法实证分析了中国低碳农业的发展状况,并深入剖析了当前中国各省区低碳农业发展存在的问题.计算了中国各省区2000-2010年的农业碳排放量并进一步分析了导致各地区差异的原因,分析了中国各省区的低碳农业发展绩效及其效率的收敛性,得出以下结论：中国大部分地区的农业碳排放总量逐年增多;农业发展与碳排放存在库兹涅兹倒“U”型曲线关系;化肥和农膜是农业碳排放的主要源头;中国各省区的低碳农业发展绩效满足“波特假说”且面板数据下的效率值存在收敛性.对此,结合中国各省区的资源禀赋条件,在制度、科技、教育等方面提出促进低碳农业发展的对策与建议.
為推動資源節約型和環境友好型社會的髮展,低碳農業成為農業髮展的必然選擇.雖然低碳農業理唸已有推廣,但是對于中國低碳農業髮展狀況和存在問題研究較少.本文使用2000-2010年的麵闆數據,選用農業碳排放模型、包絡數據分析法中的SBM模型和效率收斂性模型,通過三步法實證分析瞭中國低碳農業的髮展狀況,併深入剖析瞭噹前中國各省區低碳農業髮展存在的問題.計算瞭中國各省區2000-2010年的農業碳排放量併進一步分析瞭導緻各地區差異的原因,分析瞭中國各省區的低碳農業髮展績效及其效率的收斂性,得齣以下結論：中國大部分地區的農業碳排放總量逐年增多;農業髮展與碳排放存在庫玆涅玆倒“U”型麯線關繫;化肥和農膜是農業碳排放的主要源頭;中國各省區的低碳農業髮展績效滿足“波特假說”且麵闆數據下的效率值存在收斂性.對此,結閤中國各省區的資源稟賦條件,在製度、科技、教育等方麵提齣促進低碳農業髮展的對策與建議.
위추동자원절약형화배경우호형사회적발전,저탄농업성위농업발전적필연선택.수연저탄농업이념이유추엄,단시대우중국저탄농업발전상황화존재문제연구교소.본문사용2000-2010년적면판수거,선용농업탄배방모형、포락수거분석법중적SBM모형화효솔수렴성모형,통과삼보법실증분석료중국저탄농업적발전상황,병심입부석료당전중국각성구저탄농업발전존재적문제.계산료중국각성구2000-2010년적농업탄배방량병진일보분석료도치각지구차이적원인,분석료중국각성구적저탄농업발전적효급기효솔적수렴성,득출이하결론：중국대부분지구적농업탄배방총량축년증다;농업발전여탄배방존재고자열자도“U”형곡선관계;화비화농막시농업탄배방적주요원두;중국각성구적저탄농업발전적효만족“파특가설”차면판수거하적효솔치존재수렴성.대차,결합중국각성구적자원품부조건,재제도、과기、교육등방면제출촉진저탄농업발전적대책여건의.
In order to promote the environment-friendly and resource-saving social development,low carbon agriculture is the inevitable choice.With the popularization of the concept of low carbon agriculture,there has been few research on its development condition and current problems in China.Based on the panel data from 2000 to 2010 and using three-step method,low carbon agriculture development situation and problems between provinces in China were analyzed by Agricultural-carbon-emissions model,SBM model and Efficiency-convergence model.The agricultural carbon emissions from 2000 to 2010 in China were calculated and the causes of performance gaps between provinces were discussed.Empirical analysis of provincial low carbon agriculture development performance and its convergence was done.It is concluded that：（i） the agricultural carbon emission is increasing year by year in most provinces of China;（ii） there is an inverted Kuznets curve relation between agricultural development and agricultural carbon emissions;（iii） chemical fertilizers and agricultural films have been identified as the main source of agricultural carbon emissions; （iv） the provincial performance of low carbon agriculture meets Potter hypothesis and the efficiency value of the panel data has convergence.In view of the provincial resource condition,countermeasures and suggestions in system,technology and education,were put forward to promote the development of low carbon agriculture.
