CAJ | 학술논문

为了保障能源供给安全和实现经济与环境的可持续发展,全球生物能源发展迅速,生物能源发展对不同消费者福利的影响也受到了社会各界的广泛的关注.本文综合采用“全球贸易分析模型”（GTAP）和“中国农业可持续发展决策支持系统”（CHINAGRO）模型,分析了不同情景下,生物能源发展对我国不同消费者福利的可能影响.研究结果表明,生物能源发展将引起农产品市场价格较大幅度上涨.如果美国、欧盟、巴西和中国等按照计划目标发展生物能源,将导致大米、小麦、玉米和大豆等主要粮食作物的市场价格分别增加3.5％,2.9％,12.3％和11％,油菜籽等油料作物价格上涨22.6％,蔬菜价格增加2.7％,猪禽产品价格增加2.2％.生物能源发展导致的农产品价格上涨不仅会导致消费者农产品消费量减少,还会导致消费者用于食品消费的支出显著上升.研究表明,生物能源将导致我国不同收入水平居民的大米和小麦消费量下降0.26％-1.17％,植物油消费下降0.78％-3.61％,水果、蔬菜以及畜禽产品的消费量也将出现不同程度的下降.研究结果也表明,生物能源发展将导致我国农村和城市居民的食物消费支出分别增加1.78％和1.05％左右.在不考虑农产品价格上升对收入影响的条件下,发展生物能源对消费者福利具有负面影响,低收入者尤其是贫困者的福利损失更大,这将加重贫困人群的生活负担.因此,建议政府积极采取措施减轻因发展生物能源对贫困消费者产生的负面影响.
위료보장능원공급안전화실현경제여배경적가지속발전,전구생물능원발전신속,생물능원발전대불동소비자복리적영향야수도료사회각계적엄범적관주.본문종합채용“전구무역분석모형”（GTAP）화“중국농업가지속발전결책지지계통”（CHINAGRO）모형,분석료불동정경하,생물능원발전대아국불동소비자복리적가능영향.연구결과표명,생물능원발전장인기농산품시장개격교대폭도상창.여과미국、구맹、파서화중국등안조계화목표발전생물능원,장도치대미、소맥、옥미화대두등주요양식작물적시장개격분별증가3.5％,2.9％,12.3％화11％,유채자등유료작물개격상창22.6％,소채개격증가2.7％,저금산품개격증가2.2％.생물능원발전도치적농산품개격상창불부회도치소비자농산품소비량감소,환회도치소비자용우식품소비적지출현저상승.연구표명,생물능원장도치아국불동수입수평거민적대미화소맥소비량하강0.26％-1.17％,식물유소비하강0.78％-3.61％,수과、소채이급축금산품적소비량야장출현불동정도적하강.연구결과야표명,생물능원발전장도치아국농촌화성시거민적식물소비지출분별증가1.78％화1.05％좌우.재불고필농산품개격상승대수입영향적조건하,발전생물능원대소비자복리구유부면영향,저수입자우기시빈곤자적복리손실경대,저장가중빈곤인군적생활부담.인차,건의정부적겁채취조시감경인발전생물능원대빈곤소비자산생적부면영향.
To ensure energy security and realize the sustainable development of economy and environment,many countries have established ambitious biofuel development plans.With the rapid development of biofuel,its potential social and economic impacts,especially the impacts on the welfare of different consumer,are drawing great concerns.This paper uses both “Global Trade Analysis Project” （GTAP） and “Decision Support System on China＇s Agricultural Sustainable Development” （CHINAGRO） models,analyzes the potential impacts of biofuel development on the welfare of different consumers in China under different biofuel development scenarios.The results show that,if the United State,EU,Brazil,and China fulfill their biofuel development targets in 2020,biofuel development will lead to large increase of agricultural prices in China.For example,prices of rice,wheat,maize and soybean prices increase by 3.5％,2.9％,12.3％,and 11％,respectively,and the prices of vegetable and pork will increase by 2.7％ and 2.2％ compared with the results if biofuel production will keep at the current level.The price increase due to biofuel development will not only reduce consumers＇ food consumption but also increase their expenditure of food consumption.The results of this study show that compared with the results without biofuel expansion,rice and wheat consumption of consumers under different income groups will decrease by 0.26％-1.17％,the consumption of vegetable will decrease by 0.78％-3.61％,and the consumption demand of other agricultural commodities will also decline at various magnitudes.The results also show that rural and urban consumers＇ food expenditure under biofuel development will increase by 1.78％ and 1.05％.If the income effect of biofuel development from the production side is not included,the negative impacts of biofuel development on consumers＇ welfare are more prominent for low-income people.Therefore,the government needs to take measures to reduce the negative influence of biofuel development and give more support to poor consumers.