CAJ | 학술논문

“金砖五国”的人口转变在历史背景、因果关系与过程差异性等方面都不具备欧洲模式与特性。特别是五国人口转变中所实现的“人口秩序”和“人口效率”上存在的差异性，使得五国人口转变的比较研究远远超出传统研究中单纯的人口学意义。文章解释了五国人口转变的进程与变化，尤其是在人口与资源的脆弱背景下“人口陷阱”的形成，人口转变的各自进程、达到的水平、特征及各国比较，在五国人口转变现状与动态趋势上，进行了基于五国国际竞争力比较的人口因素解释。文章认为，中国未来国际竞争力的提升与保持，取决于在多大程度上扭转“人口低效率”陷阱，取决于国家战略高度的周密的“顶层设计”，更取决于公众具有充分的生育民主决策权。
“금전오국”적인구전변재역사배경、인과관계여과정차이성등방면도불구비구주모식여특성。특별시오국인구전변중소실현적“인구질서”화“인구효솔”상존재적차이성，사득오국인구전변적비교연구원원초출전통연구중단순적인구학의의。문장해석료오국인구전변적진정여변화，우기시재인구여자원적취약배경하“인구함정”적형성，인구전변적각자진정、체도적수평、특정급각국비교，재오국인구전변현상여동태추세상，진행료기우오국국제경쟁력비교적인구인소해석。문장인위，중국미래국제경쟁력적제승여보지，취결우재다대정도상뉴전“인구저효솔”함정，취결우국가전략고도적주밀적“정층설계”，경취결우공음구유충분적생육민주결책권。
There is much difference between historical background, causation and process of the demographic transition in BRICS countries and their European counterparts. Especially,the differentiation between the five countries in ＂population efficiency＂ during the demographic transition makes the com- parative study of the five countries＇ demographic transition far more significant than the implication of a mere demographic examination. The article examines the process and changes of demographic transi- tion in the BRICS countries, especially the formation of the ＂population trap＂ under the context of strai- ning relationship between population and resources , and the process, levels and characteristics of de~ mographic transition in a comparative perspective. Based on current status of population changes and dynamic trends in the five countries, demographic factors of international co mpetitive power of the five countries are discussed. The article maintains that enhancing and keeping China＇s future international competitive power depends on reversing the trap of ＂population low efficiency＂, having thorough ＂top- level design＂ with national strategic height, and achieving the full right for people of democratic repro- dudive decision-making.