CAJ | 학술논문

本文通过构建进口价格、消费者价格与各相关因素的长期均衡模型,分析汇率波动、外部价格冲击、国内需求变动和货币冲击等因素对进口价格和消费者价格的影响.研究表明,长期内汇率、国际初级商品价格是影响进口价格指数的显著因素,但对消费者价格波动的影响并不明显;国内需求和货币供应量波动对消费者价格的影响不显著,消费者价格上涨更多来自自身粘性所致.分段分析结果表明,汇改后汇率波动对国内进口价格和消费者价格的传递效率有所提高,汇率工具在宏观经济中的调节作用逐步增强.
본문통과구건진구개격、소비자개격여각상관인소적장기균형모형,분석회솔파동、외부개격충격、국내수구변동화화폐충격등인소대진구개격화소비자개격적영향.연구표명,장기내회솔、국제초급상품개격시영향진구개격지수적현저인소,단대소비자개격파동적영향병불명현;국내수구화화폐공응량파동대소비자개격적영향불현저,소비자개격상창경다래자자신점성소치.분단분석결과표명,회개후회솔파동대국내진구개격화소비자개격적전체효솔유소제고,회솔공구재굉관경제중적조절작용축보증강.
According to traditional finance theories, a currency＇s appreciation against other currencies can discourage＂ exports and curb domestic inflation but increase imports. The rising price level and trade surplus are associated with the rapid appreciation of Renminhi （RMB）. China has received skepticism about the proper application of traditional finance theories. This paper studies the effectiveness of exchange rate pass-through and the main factors that may influence the consequence. In addition, this paper explores exchange rate pass-through and its tendency and searches the root of the current round of inflation in China in order to formulate an effective macroeconomic policy. A comparative analysis was conducted and found that it is important to understand and assess the impact of related factors on the exchange rate fluctuation over time. Doing so can further improve the understanding of relevant factors when assessing the impact of exchange rates＇ fluctuation on price. This paper has analyzed different channels of price variation. The direct channel is the direct influence of import and export prices which arise from the exchange rate movement. The indirect channel refers to the influence of non-tradable price, which can be reflected through income mechanism, substitution mechanism, monetary supply mechanism and so forth. This paper analyses the influence of exchange rate fluctuation, external shocks, domestic demand change, money supply shocks to the import and export prices, and consumer price via VAR. The research shows that long run exchange rates and commodity prices are the main factors of the import price index, while making less contribution to consumer price. Domestic demand and the increases or decreases in the supply of money also contributes less to consumer price. This paper draws a conclusion that after exchange rate reform the transmission efficiency in exchange rate fluctuation for import price and consumer price has increased. This paper makes some suggestions on macroeeonomic policy. Firstly, the transmission efficiency of RMB exchange rate is relatively low. In order to solve imbalance in the international trade, it is important to consider industrial restructuring and economic development modes. Secondly, it is beneficial for Chinese government to improve the flexibility of RMB exchange rate. Thirdly, a stable and credible monetary policy needs to be implemented in order to minimize the influence of exchange rate fluctuation on domestic inflation.