CAJ | 학술논문

文章选取中国主要贸易伙伴美国、欧盟、日本、东盟和韩国作为研究对象，使用1999年1月到2010年1月的月度数据，分析了人民币汇率的趋势性变动与波动风险对双边贸易差额的影响，考查了中国加入WTO和2005年的第二次汇改对双边贸易差额调整的影响效应。研究发现，人民币趋势性变动对贸易顺差的调整效应是不显著的，其作用结果对不同贸易伙伴存在差别，而汇率波动率风险总体而言对双边贸易差额具有显著影响。贸易伙伴国（地区）国内经济发展状况是双边贸易差额变化的主要影响因素，中国自身的经济发展对贸易顺差的形成及调整具有重要作用。加入WTO对我国贸易顺差的变化具有显著影响．但第二次汇率制度改革对国别（地区）贸易顺差调整的效应并不显著。
문장선취중국주요무역화반미국、구맹、일본、동맹화한국작위연구대상，사용1999년1월도2010년1월적월도수거，분석료인민폐회솔적추세성변동여파동풍험대쌍변무역차액적영향，고사료중국가입WTO화2005년적제이차회개대쌍변무역차액조정적영향효응。연구발현，인민폐추세성변동대무역순차적조정효응시불현저적，기작용결과대불동무역화반존재차별，이회솔파동솔풍험총체이언대쌍변무역차액구유현저영향。무역화반국（지구）국내경제발전상황시쌍변무역차액변화적주요영향인소，중국자신적경제발전대무역순차적형성급조정구유중요작용。가입WTO대아국무역순차적변화구유현저영향．단제이차회솔제도개혁대국별（지구）무역순차조정적효응병불현저。
This paper investigates the relationship among exchange rate changes and trade balances between China and its five main trade partners. It analyzes the effects of both the trend of exchange rate changes and the risk of fluctuations on bilateral trade balance and the effects of the two main economic events, including China＇s entry to WTO in 2001 and the second exchange rate policy reform in 2005. The results indicate that the effects of the trend of exchange rate changes on the adjustment of bilateral trade balance are not remarkable. However, the fluctuation of exchange rate has significant effects on the adjustment of bilateral trade balance. China and its trade partners＇ economic conditions have more significant effects on the change of trade balance. The results also indicate that China＇s entry to WTO exerts remarkable effects on the adjustment of bilateral trade balance. However, the effect of China＇s exchange rate policy reform on the adjustment of trade balance has not been proven.