CAJ | 학술논문

随着经济发展,能源稀缺成为阻碍中国可持续发展的重要因素。文章通过对投入产出基本模型的分解,从国内需求、进出口贸易与技术进步等方面,将中国能源消耗的主要影响因素分为8种。通过各因素的作用效果与贡献率,来判断我国能源消耗增长的背后动因。结果表明：导致1997—2007年能源消费增长的最主要因素为国内需求成长、出口成长,中间需求替代与中间需求的成长也起到一定的推动作用;而技术进步与出口结构变化时抑制能源消费增长的最主要因素,最终需求结构变动对能源消耗的影响并不稳定。在此基础上,提出若干政策建议。
수착경제발전,능원희결성위조애중국가지속발전적중요인소。문장통과대투입산출기본모형적분해,종국내수구、진출구무역여기술진보등방면,장중국능원소모적주요영향인소분위8충。통과각인소적작용효과여공헌솔,래판단아국능원소모증장적배후동인。결과표명：도치1997—2007년능원소비증장적최주요인소위국내수구성장、출구성장,중간수구체대여중간수구적성장야기도일정적추동작용;이기술진보여출구결구변화시억제능원소비증장적최주요인소,최종수구결구변동대능원소모적영향병불은정。재차기출상,제출약간정책건의。
With economic developing,energy scarcity has become an important factor to hinder China’s sustainable development. The decomposition of the input- output model,in terms of domestic demand,international trade and technological progress,the main factors affecting China’s energy consumption is divided into eight kinds. Relevant data to calculate the effect of the contribution rate of these factors to determine the motivation behind the growth of China’s energy consumption. The results showed that： the most important factor for the growth of energy consumption from 1997 to 2007 are the growth of domestic demand,export growth,in addition,the growth of intermediate demand substitution and intermediate demand also played a certain role; technological progress and export structure changes,inhibition of energy the most important factor of growth in consumption,and ultimately changes in the demand structure of energy consumption is not stable. According to results,the paper raises a number of policy suggestions.