CAJ | 학술논문

应用技术生命周期理论和Logistic模型,借助中国钢铁产业的专利数据对中国钢铁产业的技术创新开展技术预测研究。结果表明：中国钢铁产业专利技术发展将经历四个阶段：第一阶段（1985—2009年）为萌芽期,发展相对较慢;第二阶段（2010—2021年）产业技术进入成长期,专利技术发展速度加快,出现重大发明;第三阶段（2022—2033年）为技术成熟期,以外围专利为主;第四阶段（2033年以后）将进入衰退期,申请减少。依据产业技术生命周期阶段和国内外专利实力对比,提出了中国钢铁产业技术创新的＂三步走＂策略：突破核心技术,建立专利布局,国际化发展。
응용기술생명주기이론화Logistic모형,차조중국강철산업적전리수거대중국강철산업적기술창신개전기술예측연구。결과표명：중국강철산업전리기술발전장경력사개계단：제일계단（1985—2009년）위맹아기,발전상대교만;제이계단（2010—2021년）산업기술진입성장기,전리기술발전속도가쾌,출현중대발명;제삼계단（2022—2033년）위기술성숙기,이외위전리위주;제사계단（2033년이후）장진입쇠퇴기,신청감소。의거산업기술생명주기계단화국내외전리실력대비,제출료중국강철산업기술창신적＂삼보주＂책략：돌파핵심기술,건립전리포국,국제화발전。
Based on the patent data of China＇s steel and iron industry, the paper applies the technology life cycle theory and the Logistic model to conduct technology forecast research. The results show that the first stage （1985--2009） is germination stage when steel and iron industry developed at a relatively slow speed. The second stage （2010--2021）is its growth stage when development of patent technology accelerates and some important inventions appear. The third stage （2022--2033）is the mature stage, when peripheral patents constitute a major part. After that, the stage of decline will arrive, and patent applications will decrease. According to the development stage of technology development and strength comparison of domestic and foreign patents, the paper puts forward a patent strategy with three steps for the industrial technology innovation in China. The three steps are breakthroughs in core technology, the establishment of patent portfolio, and international development.