CAJ | 학술논문

根据“人口结构定理”设计“百年计划生育计算模型”，可以按照设定的生育指标，测算并获得长达两百年的多项人口数据，包括出生率、出生人口、总人口、抚育比和“曾-祖-父-子”四代的人口结构等重要指标，这些数据可以为计划生育的管理提供指导依据。从计算中同时发现，学术界普遍将“两胎”简单地等同于“世代更替水平”，从而理解为人口“零增长”，这实际是一个误区。因为“两胎”指标的人口仍然在不断上升。研究同时还发现，根据目前中国的人12／出生率和死亡率数据，“零增长”对应的生育率，不是2．0而是0．7～0．8，二者相差甚远。
근거“인구결구정리”설계“백년계화생육계산모형”，가이안조설정적생육지표，측산병획득장체량백년적다항인구수거，포괄출생솔、출생인구、총인구、무육비화“증-조-부-자”사대적인구결구등중요지표，저사수거가이위계화생육적관리제공지도의거。종계산중동시발현，학술계보편장“량태”간단지등동우“세대경체수평”，종이리해위인구“령증장”，저실제시일개오구。인위“량태”지표적인구잉연재불단상승。연구동시환발현，근거목전중국적인12／출생솔화사망솔수거，“령증장”대응적생육솔，불시2．0이시0．7～0．8，이자상차심원。
Based on the ＂population structure theorem＂, a ＂centurial birth control calculation model＂ was designed. With the model, a couple of population data can be obtained with preset population target, including birth rate, newly-born population, total population, dependency ratio, four generations＇ structure, which can provide guidance reference for birth control management. Meantime, the calculation also reveals a common misunderstanding in the academic circle to think ＂two children for a couple＂ equals to ＂genera- tion replacement level＂ or ＂zero growth＂, for the simple fact that the number of adequate couples to have two children is on the increase. The study also shows that the corresponding birth rate for ＂zero growth＂ is about 0.7-0.8 rather than 2.0 based on the data of Chings contemporary birth rate and death rate.