人口研究
人口研究
인구연구
Population Research
2014年
1期
30~36
,共null页
流动人口 抽样框 重复抽选及抽选后合并 目标总体与抽样总体的关系 事后加权
流動人口 抽樣框 重複抽選及抽選後閤併 目標總體與抽樣總體的關繫 事後加權
류동인구 추양광 중복추선급추선후합병 목표총체여추양총체적관계 사후가권
Migrants, Sampling Frame, Replicating Seledion and Linking after Selection, Relation between Target Population and Frame Population, Post-weighting
文章对流动人口调查中抽样框的编制、重复抽选及抽选后合并、目标与抽样总体关系的复杂化等问题进行了描述和讨论。实践表明，在编制流动人口调查抽样框时，研究人员不仅需要得到相应数据库的支持，而且还应特别注意偶然性因素的影响；对规模过大或过小的抽样单位，重复抽选或抽选后合并是比较简便的方式；此外，在以“登记户籍人口”作为目标总体的调查中，受“跨界流出人口”的影响，特定地区目标总体与抽样总体的关系将表现为“一对多”的形式，数据处理时必须进行“事后加权”。为保证“事后加权”有效性，需要考虑不同省（区、市）人口流动的特点，特别是样本中“省际”和“省内”流动人口的规模。“2013年全国生育意愿调查”数据处理的过程表明，不同省（区、市）“事后加权”的分组变量及分组数量并不完全相同，具有一定的灵活性。
文章對流動人口調查中抽樣框的編製、重複抽選及抽選後閤併、目標與抽樣總體關繫的複雜化等問題進行瞭描述和討論。實踐錶明，在編製流動人口調查抽樣框時，研究人員不僅需要得到相應數據庫的支持，而且還應特彆註意偶然性因素的影響；對規模過大或過小的抽樣單位，重複抽選或抽選後閤併是比較簡便的方式；此外，在以“登記戶籍人口”作為目標總體的調查中，受“跨界流齣人口”的影響，特定地區目標總體與抽樣總體的關繫將錶現為“一對多”的形式，數據處理時必鬚進行“事後加權”。為保證“事後加權”有效性，需要攷慮不同省（區、市）人口流動的特點，特彆是樣本中“省際”和“省內”流動人口的規模。“2013年全國生育意願調查”數據處理的過程錶明，不同省（區、市）“事後加權”的分組變量及分組數量併不完全相同，具有一定的靈活性。
문장대류동인구조사중추양광적편제、중복추선급추선후합병、목표여추양총체관계적복잡화등문제진행료묘술화토론。실천표명，재편제류동인구조사추양광시，연구인원불부수요득도상응수거고적지지，이차환응특별주의우연성인소적영향；대규모과대혹과소적추양단위，중복추선혹추선후합병시비교간편적방식；차외，재이“등기호적인구”작위목표총체적조사중，수“과계류출인구”적영향，특정지구목표총체여추양총체적관계장표현위“일대다”적형식，수거처리시필수진행“사후가권”。위보증“사후가권”유효성，수요고필불동성（구、시）인구류동적특점，특별시양본중“성제”화“성내”류동인구적규모。“2013년전국생육의원조사”수거처리적과정표명，불동성（구、시）“사후가권”적분조변량급분조수량병불완전상동，구유일정적령활성。
This paper describes and discusses issues on the establishment of sampling frame, replicate selection and linking after selection, the relation between target population and frame population in migrants surveys. Experience shows that when preparing the sampling frame of migrants surveys, researchers not only need the support of relevant database, but also should pay particular attention to the effects of accidental factors. For oversized or undersized sample units, a relatively simple approach is to replicate selection, or link sample units after selection. In addition, in a survey whose target population is the ＂Registered-household Population＂, the relation between target population and frame population in specific areas will appear as ＂one-to-many＂ as a result of impacts of cross-border migrant outflows. Thus, post-weighting is necessary when processing data. To ensure the effectiveness of the postweighting, the characteristics of population flows in different provinces should be taken into account, especially the size of floating population both across and within province in the survey sample. Data processing of 2013 National Fertility Desires Survey indicates that the grouping variables and number of groups of post-weighting in different provinces are not exactly the same, but subject to some flexibility.
