CAJ | 학술논문

数据分析表明：农村留守儿童进入高中学龄阶段后，教育机会急剧下降。受父母外出流动影响，高中学龄农村留守儿童终止学业后很快就外出打工，身份过早地从“农村留守儿童”转换为“新生代农民工”，很有可能对其未来发展带来负面影响。为了对高中学龄农村留守儿童终止学业的影响做深入研究，文章利用“2011年流动人口动态监测数据”，通过构造以平均月收入对数为因变量的6个线性回归模型对新生代农民工的留守经历、外出年龄等自变量与当前收入之间的关系进行论证，回归结果证明：留守经历、外出时间以及二者交互作用对新生代农民工的收入都有显著影响。根据研究得到的留守经历与收入之间的互动关系，还可以对该年龄段农村留守儿童教育机会急剧下降现象做出新的解释。
수거분석표명：농촌류수인동진입고중학령계단후，교육궤회급극하강。수부모외출류동영향，고중학령농촌류수인동종지학업후흔쾌취외출타공，신빈과조지종“농촌류수인동”전환위“신생대농민공”，흔유가능대기미래발전대래부면영향。위료대고중학령농촌류수인동종지학업적영향주심입연구，문장이용“2011년류동인구동태감측수거”，통과구조이평균월수입대수위인변량적6개선성회귀모형대신생대농민공적류수경력、외출년령등자변량여당전수입지간적관계진행론증，회귀결과증명：류수경력、외출시간이급이자교호작용대신생대농민공적수입도유현저영향。근거연구득도적류수경력여수입지간적호동관계，환가이대해년령단농촌류수인동교육궤회급극하강현상주출신적해석。
It is showed that the school attendance rate of left-behind Children drops sharply once they reach the high school age according to the 20]0 population census data. The social status of high school-aged left-behind children changes to new generation migrant workers if they join in the migration flow after their dropout. This paper proposes 3 hypotheses to test the effects of left-behind experiences and age at migration on their current income based on the Dynamic Supervision Survey of Floating Population conducted by the State Family Planning Commission in 2011. Results demonstrate that both the left-behind experience in earlier childhood and the age at migration significantly affect new generation＇s income. The correlation belween age at migration and income also explains why left-behind children intend to stop schooling in high school.