CAJ | 학술논문

文章基于2000～2010年全国31个省、市、自治区的面板数据，通过建立PanelData模型对中国省级区域消费函数进行探究，研究综合的人口因素对区域消费的影响。结果显示在不同人口因素中，城镇化水平、人口受教育程度、外来人口流入率以及老龄化程度对区域消费的影响是显著的，也就是说人口因素作用在区域消费水平上的影响是显著的。除此之外，人口因素对不同地区的区域消费水平的影响程度存在差异，这种区域差异的状态是由区域间的人口效应的差异造成的。研究表明我国区域人口城镇化滞后发展阻碍区域消费内需扩大；教育水平参差不齐减缓区域消费模式优化；人口流动集聚效应带动区域消费水平提高，应当充分利用区域间年龄结构差异发挥区域消费优势。
문장기우2000～2010년전국31개성、시、자치구적면판수거，통과건립PanelData모형대중국성급구역소비함수진행탐구，연구종합적인구인소대구역소비적영향。결과현시재불동인구인소중，성진화수평、인구수교육정도、외래인구류입솔이급노령화정도대구역소비적영향시현저적，야취시설인구인소작용재구역소비수평상적영향시현저적。제차지외，인구인소대불동지구적구역소비수평적영향정도존재차이，저충구역차이적상태시유구역간적인구효응적차이조성적。연구표명아국구역인구성진화체후발전조애구역소비내수확대；교육수평삼차불제감완구역소비모식우화；인구류동집취효응대동구역소비수평제고，응당충분이용구역간년령결구차이발휘구역소비우세。
This paper investigates the regional consumption function of China＇s provinces based on the panel data of 31 provinces from 2000 to 2010, in order to explore the effects of demographic factors on regional consumption. The results show that demographic variables such as the level of urbanization and schooling, the inflowing rate of external population, and the degree of aging have significant impact on the regional consumption. Apart from this, the influences of demographic factors on consumption vary from place to place, which is caused by the discrepancies of population effects among regions. Thus, we draw the conclusion： at the regional level, the lagged development of urbanization hinders the expansion of consumption and domestic demand ; the unevenness of educational level prevents the optimizing of consumption models ; the aggregation effect of transient population promotes the consumption level; and the full use of age structure unleashes the regional consumption advantages.