CAJ | 학술논문

我国正处在工业化和城市化建设的重要阶段，国民经济的发展在很大程度上仍依赖于对石油及天然气的消耗，石油及天然气供应及其价格波动对我国国民经济的影响日益突出。在此背景下，建立投入产出模型，利用最新的投入产出表数据，计算研究了国民经济各部门的油气直接、完全消耗系数及其变化趋势以及油气价格变动对各部门的影响程度。分析认为：油气供应量、油气价格变化对各部门都会产生重要影响，且影响程度不同；重工业的油气消耗相对较大，但增长幅度较小；农业、制造业中间油气消耗量大，其发展与油气的关系较紧密；第三产业的油气消耗量有较明显的上升趋势；矿产开采业、交通运输业及化学工业受油气价格波动的影响较为明显。
아국정처재공업화화성시화건설적중요계단，국민경제적발전재흔대정도상잉의뢰우대석유급천연기적소모，석유급천연기공응급기개격파동대아국국민경제적영향일익돌출。재차배경하，건립투입산출모형，이용최신적투입산출표수거，계산연구료국민경제각부문적유기직접、완전소모계수급기변화추세이급유기개격변동대각부문적영향정도。분석인위：유기공응량、유기개격변화대각부문도회산생중요영향，차영향정도불동；중공업적유기소모상대교대，단증장폭도교소；농업、제조업중간유기소모량대，기발전여유기적관계교긴밀；제삼산업적유기소모량유교명현적상승추세；광산개채업、교통운수업급화학공업수유기개격파동적영향교위명현。
This study establishes an input-output model, calculates the direct consumption coefficient and the total use-up coefficient, predicts the trend of change and researches the price fluctuation＇s influence on national economy. The results indicate that the supply of oil and gas, the change of oil-gas prices have significant and different influences on each economic departments：（1）in heavy industry, oil-gas consumption is relatively larger but less growth：（2）in agriculture and manufacture industries, oil-gas intermediate consumption is large and has a close relationship to the industries＇ development; （3）in the tertiary industry, oil-gas consumption has an obvious rising trend：（4）in the mining industry, transportation industry and the chemical industry, their developments are affected by the price fluctuations of oil and gas more obviously.