CAJ | 학술논문

近年来，中国史中GDP的估算研究引起了学界的高度关注，并由此引起了热烈讨论。关于国民所得、国民收入等宏观经济核算的研究，最早可追溯至上个世纪三四十年代，学人多承认由巫宝三等人率先开创。此后，关于这一方面的研究成果不断，但估算研究时段主要集中在中国的近现代史。最早把GDP估算研究带人中国古代史领域的是外国学者保罗·贝洛赫、安格斯·麦迪森等人，但是他们较为粗略式的估算引起了学界不断的质疑，并直接或间接地促成了此次古代经济史领域GDP研究的小高潮。相关研究引起了学界关于GDP研究是否适用于中国历史、是否存在误区、跨地区跨时段的换算方法优劣性、公式模型及其基础资料是否严谨、数据统计与历史真实等问题的争议。而随着争议的展开，研究也越来越深入。无论是作为方法论而言，还是意欲构筑经济史学科未来基础性的统计而言，中国史中的GDP研究都值得期待和展望。
근년래，중국사중GDP적고산연구인기료학계적고도관주，병유차인기료열렬토론。관우국민소득、국민수입등굉관경제핵산적연구，최조가추소지상개세기삼사십년대，학인다승인유무보삼등인솔선개창。차후，관우저일방면적연구성과불단，단고산연구시단주요집중재중국적근현대사。최조파GDP고산연구대인중국고대사영역적시외국학자보라·패락혁、안격사·맥적삼등인，단시타문교위조략식적고산인기료학계불단적질의，병직접혹간접지촉성료차차고대경제사영역GDP연구적소고조。상관연구인기료학계관우GDP연구시부괄용우중국역사、시부존재오구、과지구과시단적환산방법우렬성、공식모형급기기출자료시부엄근、수거통계여역사진실등문제적쟁의。이수착쟁의적전개，연구야월래월심입。무론시작위방법론이언，환시의욕구축경제사학과미래기출성적통계이언，중국사중적GDP연구도치득기대화전망。
Estimation of historical GDP in China has attracted much attention and resulted in heated discussions in recent years. Studies of macro-economic accounts in relation with national income were conducted in as early as the 1930s and the 1940s in China. Wu Baosan was believed to be the leading one of the earliest Chinese scholars devoted to this field. The following researchers mainly concentrated on early modern and modern times in their studies. GDP estimation was first introduced to China by foreign scholars such as Paul Bairoch and Angus Maddison. However they were questioned by other researchers for their inaccurate estimates. Such questioning leads to, directly or indirectly, the current intense interest in historical studies of GDP in pre-modern China. Researchers disagreed such questions as applicability of GDP estimation to historical studies of China, the possible pitfalls in such studies, the pros and cons of the comparison across time and space, reliability of equations, models and basic data used in the studies, and relations between statistical data and historical reality. Lively debates have led to more and deeper explorations. We may expect more developments in historical GDP studies in both terms of methodology and the construction of statistical foundation for future explorations into China＇s economic history.