CAJ | 학술논문

自从台湾问题形成以来，美国历任总统都实行“双轨政策”，一方面承认“台湾是中国的一部分”，但又从没有放弃对“台独”的支持，如对台军售。了解美国民众涉台观点的形成和受到哪些因素的影响对我国制定相应的涉台政策有着重要意义。本文先后采用univariateprobit、bivari-ateprobit和seeminglyunrelatedbivariateprobit模型对美国民众在台湾省地位的认同和对台军售支持进行回归分析。分析结果显示美国民众对中国台湾省地位的认同显著地影响对台军售支持，认同“台湾是中国一部分”的美国民众在对台军售方面的支持也显著要高。这充分证实了美国是典型的现实主义者，他利用台湾问题来阻滞中国大陆的发展和海峡两岸的和平统一。
자종태만문제형성이래，미국력임총통도실행“쌍궤정책”，일방면승인“태만시중국적일부분”，단우종몰유방기대“태독”적지지，여대태군수。료해미국민음섭태관점적형성화수도나사인소적영향대아국제정상응적섭태정책유착중요의의。본문선후채용univariateprobit、bivari-ateprobit화seeminglyunrelatedbivariateprobit모형대미국민음재태만성지위적인동화대태군수지지진행회귀분석。분석결과현시미국민음대중국태만성지위적인동현저지영향대태군수지지，인동“태만시중국일부분”적미국민음재대태군수방면적지지야현저요고。저충분증실료미국시전형적현실주의자，타이용태만문제래조체중국대륙적발전화해협량안적화평통일。
Ever since Taiwan problem arose, all the successive presidents of the United States have pursued the ＂Dual- track Policy＂. They have acknowledged the fact that Taiwan is part of China, but on the other hand, have never gave up their support of Taiwan independence, and their arms sales to Taiwan is a case in point. Therefore, it is of great significance for China＇s policy-makers to make corresponding policies on Taiwan problem when they gain a better understanding of the American views on the problem as well as the factors that have exerted influence on them. This paper makes a detailed regressive study of the American public＇s recognition of Taiwan as a province of China and their arms sales to Taiwan by using the models of univa- riate probit, bivariate probit and seemingly unrelated bivariate probit. The findings show that their recognition of the Taiwan status has significantly affected American＇s arms sales to Taiwan and surprisingly, more of the support of the sales comes from those who accept the fact that Taiwan is part of China. This fully proves that the United States is a typical realist, who tries to hinder mainland development and oeacefullv unification across the Straits by the use of the Taiwan oroblem.