CAJ | 학술논문

文章首次基于空间面板计量经济学模型，在检验我国省域旅游经济增长是否存在空间依赖性的基础上，估计了资本和劳动对旅游经济增长的贡献，检验了旅游经济增长过程中的空间溢出效应。研究结果显示：2001～2009年间，中国省域旅游经济增长的空间依赖性和集群趋势加强，邻近省域的经济增长及旅游资本投入的空间溢出效应明显；资本和劳动的旅游产出弹性系数均为正，前者对旅游经济增长的贡献大于后者，我国省域尺度的旅游经济增长主要依赖于资本要素投入驱动，呈现出资本密集型特征，劳动力要素的贡献尚未充分发挥出来。政府在制定旅游产业政策和发展规划时，必须致力于加强邻近地区旅游资本和劳动投入的合作与交流，促进旅游经济增长中的资本空间溢出效应，改革旅游业国民收入初次分配及再次分配体制，激活邻近省域旅游劳动力投入与旅游经济增长的空间互动性，以便提高邻近地区及本地区劳动力对旅游经济增长的协同贡献。
문장수차기우공간면판계량경제학모형，재검험아국성역여유경제증장시부존재공간의뢰성적기출상，고계료자본화노동대여유경제증장적공헌，검험료여유경제증장과정중적공간일출효응。연구결과현시：2001～2009년간，중국성역여유경제증장적공간의뢰성화집군추세가강，린근성역적경제증장급여유자본투입적공간일출효응명현；자본화노동적여유산출탄성계수균위정，전자대여유경제증장적공헌대우후자，아국성역척도적여유경제증장주요의뢰우자본요소투입구동，정현출자본밀집형특정，노동력요소적공헌상미충분발휘출래。정부재제정여유산업정책화발전규화시，필수치력우가강린근지구여유자본화노동투입적합작여교류，촉진여유경제증장중적자본공간일출효응，개혁여유업국민수입초차분배급재차분배체제，격활린근성역여유노동력투입여여유경제증장적공간호동성，이편제고린근지구급본지구노동력대여유경제증장적협동공헌。
Over the course of the last decade, tourism research has been dominated by time series or cross-sectional econometric modeling techniques. But these models have limitations; the time series model overlooks the cross-sectional impact of regional tourism activity, while the traditional cross- sectional model ignores the spatial interdependence of regions. When modeling economic growth in the tourism industry, these techniques fail to account for spillover effects： the benefits regions obtain from economic growth in local tourism from their neighbors＇ input and output flows through regional input- output interactions. The most important factors, capital and labor flows from different regions, can have spillover effects or agglomeration effects on economic growth in tourism in neighboring regions. Given the shortcomings of the time series and cross-sectional techniques, most tourism studies failed to consider that spatial effects universally influence economic growth in regional tourism and, consequently, their results have not been persuasive or reliable. While, since 2010, some Chinese tourism studies have focused on the spatial econometric techniques to address spatial interdependence among regions, the majority have ignored temporal and spatial correlations and their potential impact on economic growth in regional tourism. This study takes a different approach by employing spatial panel econometrics models of no fixed effects, spatial fixed effects, time-period fixed effects, and spatial and time-period fixed effects. Based on the Solow growth model and tourism panel data of 31 Chinese provinces over 2001 - 2009, we investigate whether spatial dependence of economic growth in the tourism industry exists across Chinese provinces. We also estimate the contributions of capital and labor to economic growth in the tourism industry of neighboring regions, and test for spillover effects in economic growth. The results show a strengthening in spatial dependence and clustering trends of economic growth in Chinese provincial tourism during 2001 - 2009. In addition, the spillover effects of economic growth and spatial tourism capital investment from the neighboring provinces are significant. From these results, we suggest that spatial correlation of economic growth in provincial tourism should be considered in elasticity estimation studies of economic growth in the tourism industry. As the elasticity coefficients of capital and labor investment to tourism output are positive, the contribution of capital to economic growth in the tourism industry is greater than that of labor. While capital inputs are the key driver of economic growth in tourism at the provincial level, evidenced by tourism growth patterns matching capital inflows, the contribution of labor to economic growth in tourism has not been fully played out. To develop effective tourism industry policies and development plans, governments have to be aware of the spatial dependence of economic growth in tourism, and the impact of capital inputs and labor force contributions. Furthermore, their policies should encourage cooperation and exchanges of tourism capital and labor inputs across neighborhoods, promote capital spatial spillover effects in economic growth in tourism, and reform the distribution systems of national income. They should also take advantage of the opportunity to manage spatial interactions between adjacent provinces in terms of tourism labor investment and economic growth in tourism, thereby increasing the collaborative contributions of labor investment from adjacent regions.