CAJ | 학술논문

本文基于金融发展与经济增长之间可能存在突变性的判断,运用平滑移动自回归（STAR）模型,对中国的金融发展与经济增长之间的多重均衡问题重新进行了验证.结果表明,在我国,金融发展与经济增长存在多重均衡现象,且这种现象具有对转型阶段的敏感性.具体而言,金融发展与经济增长的关系在1992年前后处于低水平均衡,而在1996年两者之间的多重均衡现象发生了逆转,均衡点发生了向高水平均衡的跳跃.这表明,随着经济的发展,金融发展与经济增长形成了更高水平的均衡状态.
본문기우금융발전여경제증장지간가능존재돌변성적판단,운용평활이동자회귀（STAR）모형,대중국적금융발전여경제증장지간적다중균형문제중신진행료험증.결과표명,재아국,금융발전여경제증장존재다중균형현상,차저충현상구유대전형계단적민감성.구체이언,금융발전여경제증장적관계재1992년전후처우저수평균형,이재1996년량자지간적다중균형현상발생료역전,균형점발생료향고수평균형적도약.저표명,수착경제적발전,금융발전여경제증장형성료경고수평적균형상태.
According to judgments of the relationship between financial development and economic growth, the paper uses smooth movement autoregressive （STAR） model to revalidate the multiple equilibrium problem of China＇s financial development and economic growth. The results show that the phenomenon of multiple equilibrium of financial development and economic growth does exist in China, and this phenomenon shows transition phase sensitivity. Specifically, the phenomenon of multiple equilibrium of financial development and economic growth was at low level around 1992 and then reversed in 1996, and it turned to a relative high level in 1997. These suggest that the financial development anti economic growth to form a higher level of equilibrium with the development of economy.