统计研究
統計研究
통계연구
Statistical Research
2014年
1期
84~90
,共null页
电力需求 农村居民 面板数据 动态面板数据模型
電力需求 農村居民 麵闆數據 動態麵闆數據模型
전력수구 농촌거민 면판수거 동태면판수거모형
Residential Electricity Demand; Rural China; Panel Data; Dynamic Panel Data Model.
本文利用中国30个省级行政区2005—2010年的省级年度数据，基于系统GMM估计法，对我国农村居民电力消费的双对数动态模型进行了估计。估计结果表明，我国农村居民电力需求主要受人均收入、燃料价格、电价、家庭人口规模、家电价格、城镇化水平及年平均气温等因素的影响。要增加农村居民电力消费量，重要的途径是要增加其收入水平，并降低其电用成本。
本文利用中國30箇省級行政區2005—2010年的省級年度數據，基于繫統GMM估計法，對我國農村居民電力消費的雙對數動態模型進行瞭估計。估計結果錶明，我國農村居民電力需求主要受人均收入、燃料價格、電價、傢庭人口規模、傢電價格、城鎮化水平及年平均氣溫等因素的影響。要增加農村居民電力消費量，重要的途徑是要增加其收入水平，併降低其電用成本。
본문이용중국30개성급행정구2005—2010년적성급년도수거，기우계통GMM고계법，대아국농촌거민전력소비적쌍대수동태모형진행료고계。고계결과표명，아국농촌거민전력수구주요수인균수입、연료개격、전개、가정인구규모、가전개격、성진화수평급년평균기온등인소적영향。요증가농촌거민전력소비량，중요적도경시요증가기수입수평，병강저기전용성본。
In this paper, based on systematic GMM estimation method, we estimate Double Logarithmic Dynamic Model of China＇ s rural residential electricity consumption using annual data for 30 provincial-level administrative regions in China from 2005 to 2010. The estimated results indicate that China＇ s rural residential electricity demand is mainly influenced by per capita income, fuel prices, electricity price, family size, home appliances prices, urbanization level, annual mean temperature and so forth. The short-term and long-term income elasticity of rural residential electricity demand are 0.83 and 1.29, the short-term and long-term self price elasticity of demand are 0. 13 and 0.20, respectively, and with short-term price elasticity of.fuel demand being 0. 72 and 0. 36 as the price elasticity of home appliances. These serves to the conclusion that the significant approach to increase rural residential electricity consumption is to increase the income level and decrease the electricity price of rural residents.
