CAJ | 학술논문

针对我国现行的重大项目社会稳定风险评估框架存在的缺陷和错误,提出以“发现问题—分析问题—解决问题”为主线的投资项目社会稳定风险评估新框架.新框架的评估思路是：通过全面深入调查,在分析各风险因素的基础上确定影响社会稳定的主要风险,然后根据专家经验预测各风险的发生概率和影响程度,对标评判风险程度及可控程度,对不可接受的风险必须分类制定切实可行的应对措施,直到所有风险都处于“低风险且可控”状态才可得出项目可行的评价结论.
침대아국현행적중대항목사회은정풍험평고광가존재적결함화착오,제출이“발현문제—분석문제—해결문제”위주선적투자항목사회은정풍험평고신광가.신광가적평고사로시：통과전면심입조사,재분석각풍험인소적기출상학정영향사회은정적주요풍험,연후근거전가경험예측각풍험적발생개솔화영향정도,대표평판풍험정도급가공정도,대불가접수적풍험필수분류제정절실가행적응대조시,직도소유풍험도처우“저풍험차가공”상태재가득출항목가행적평개결론.
In view of the defects and errors existing in the prevalent framework of social unrest risk assessment of major project oriented by whole risk-degree judgment,this paper puts forward a new assessment framework oriented by problem solution which takes ＂finding problem-- analyzing problem--solving problem＂ as the main line. The assessment process based on this new framework are as follows：on the basis of the thorough and comprehensive investigation,determining the primary social unrest risks through analyzing various risk factors; then forecasting the occurrence probability and the impact of each risk according to experts＇ experiences, and evaluating risk level and its controllable degree after benchmarking;classifying any unacceptable risks,and making practical measures until all of risks are in a ＂low-risk and controlled＂ state.