CAJ | 학술논문

诸葛亮在《隆中对》中对刘备的发展提出了两层战略：一层是前期战略，旨在夺取荆州，进而入蜀，跨有荆益；另一层是后期战略，包括宛洛、秦川二策。但是这一举措本身就存在诸多问题：一方面，前期战略因为孙权对荆州的战略意图而困难重重，“跨有荆益”之策因为刘备的割据心态、关羽的莽撞和诸葛亮的人微言轻而失败；另一方面，后期战略的触发，依赖于“天下有变”这一条件。诸葛亮“天下有变”所指应为曹操势力内部士人群体发生的叛乱，而其根据并不充分，后来也未被诸葛亮坚持，加上诸葛亮晚年性格的巨大变化，使得《隆中对》的后期战略从条件到精神都无从实现了。
제갈량재《륭중대》중대류비적발전제출료량층전략：일층시전기전략，지재탈취형주，진이입촉，과유형익；령일층시후기전략，포괄완락、진천이책。단시저일거조본신취존재제다문제：일방면，전기전략인위손권대형주적전략의도이곤난중중，“과유형익”지책인위류비적할거심태、관우적망당화제갈량적인미언경이실패；령일방면，후기전략적촉발，의뢰우“천하유변”저일조건。제갈량“천하유변”소지응위조조세력내부사인군체발생적반란，이기근거병불충분，후래야미피제갈량견지，가상제갈량만년성격적거대변화，사득《륭중대》적후기전략종조건도정신도무종실현료。
According to Dialogue in Longzhong, Zhuge liang proposes a two-step strategy for Liu Bei： the first step is to take the Jingzhou and Yizhou Prefectures, and the second to capture Nanyang, Luoyang and all the central areas to the north of the Qingling Mountain. However, the strategy itself is problematic. On the one hand, the first step proves hard to accomplish due to Sun Quan＇ s （182 -252） strategic intention regarding Jingzhou, and the ＂domination of Jingzhou and Yizhou Prefectures＂ is aborted as a result of Liu Bei＇ s con- tentedness with his separatist regime, Guan Yu＇ s （？ - 220） recklessness and Zhuge Liang＇ s minor influ- ences in the government. On the other hand, the second step relies exclusively on ＂future upheavals＂ by which Zhuge means the revolts possibly taking place in Cao Cao＇s （155 -220） force, but, being unable to produce sufficient evidence for that, he later never clings to it, and worse, his character undergoes vicissitudes during his later years; this means that the second step is doomed to failure whether objectively or subjectively.