科技和产业
科技和產業
과기화산업
SCIENCE TECHNOLOGY AND INDUSTRIAL
2014年
2期
107~112
,共null页
投资规模 消费水平 经济增长 协整检验
投資規模 消費水平 經濟增長 協整檢驗
투자규모 소비수평 경제증장 협정검험
the scale of investment;the consumption level; the economy growth; the co-integration test
实证分析结果表明,新疆经济增长与投资规模间长期均衡关系为开口向下的抛物线,与消费水平间长期均衡关系为开口向上的抛物线.新疆投资规模驱动的经济增长最高产出水平尚未出现,并且投资规模达到4.646 66万亿元时投资对经济增长的驱动效应达到最大值;新疆消费水平导致的经济增长最低产出水平出现在1 979年至1980年间,并且消费水平为31.580 51亿元时,消费水平对新疆经济增长的驱动效应最低,对GDP的贡献仅占相应年份全部份额的1/5至1/4.新疆投资规模处于对经济增长起正向推动作用的区间,消费水平也处于对经济增长起正向推动作用的区间;但是新疆投资规模和消费水平的进一步提升都存在一定的约束.
實證分析結果錶明,新疆經濟增長與投資規模間長期均衡關繫為開口嚮下的拋物線,與消費水平間長期均衡關繫為開口嚮上的拋物線.新疆投資規模驅動的經濟增長最高產齣水平尚未齣現,併且投資規模達到4.646 66萬億元時投資對經濟增長的驅動效應達到最大值;新疆消費水平導緻的經濟增長最低產齣水平齣現在1 979年至1980年間,併且消費水平為31.580 51億元時,消費水平對新疆經濟增長的驅動效應最低,對GDP的貢獻僅佔相應年份全部份額的1/5至1/4.新疆投資規模處于對經濟增長起正嚮推動作用的區間,消費水平也處于對經濟增長起正嚮推動作用的區間;但是新疆投資規模和消費水平的進一步提升都存在一定的約束.
실증분석결과표명,신강경제증장여투자규모간장기균형관계위개구향하적포물선,여소비수평간장기균형관계위개구향상적포물선.신강투자규모구동적경제증장최고산출수평상미출현,병차투자규모체도4.646 66만억원시투자대경제증장적구동효응체도최대치;신강소비수평도치적경제증장최저산출수평출현재1 979년지1980년간,병차소비수평위31.580 51억원시,소비수평대신강경제증장적구동효응최저,대GDP적공헌부점상응년빈전부빈액적1/5지1/4.신강투자규모처우대경제증장기정향추동작용적구간,소비수평야처우대경제증장기정향추동작용적구간;단시신강투자규모화소비수평적진일보제승도존재일정적약속.
The results of empirical analysis show that： the relationship between Xinjiang＇s economy growth and its investment in a long-term equi- librium is a parabola with downward opening, and the relationship between Xinjiang＇s economy growth and its consumption in the long-run equilibrium is a parabola with upward opening. The highest level of output of Xinjiang＇s economy growth driven by its investment has not appeared, and the maximum driven-effect of Xinjiang＇s economy growth will reach when the scale of investment reached 4. 64666 trillion Yuan. The lowest level of output of Xinjiang＇s economy growth driven by its consumption appeared between 1979 and 1980, and the minimum driven-ffect of Xinjiangs economy growth had reached when the consumption reached 31. 58051 billion Yuan, and its contribution to GDP only accounted for 1/5 to 1/4 to corresponding year. The investment scale of Xinjiang is still in the interval with the positive promoting effect on economy growth, and its consumption is in the interval with the positive promoting effect on economy growth, too. However, they are certain constraints on Xinjiang investment scale and its consumption level to enhance more.
