CAJ | 학술논문

与宏观层面的转型绩效评价不同，文章通过分析微观层面上社会底层民众的贫困脆弱性，以贫困家户抵御各种风险冲击的能力为视角来评价中俄两国经济转型的绩效。文章使用1996—2008年间5轮中国营养健康调查（CHNS）和俄罗斯纵列监测调查（RLMS）数据，测量了中俄农村家户脆弱性水平及其长期变动趋势，并在分解贫困脆弱性的基础上探寻了两国不同类型的经济转型对农村家户福利水平的长期影响。实证分析表明，中国经济渐进转型保证了农村居民的脆弱性水平逐渐降低，但脆弱性水平仍然较高，其中的风险脆弱性近年来呈上升趋势；而“休克疗法”式的经济转型虽然造成了俄罗斯农村居民收入水平的较大波动，但波动尚在可以忍受的范围之内，贫困脆弱性水平很低且总体上呈下降趋势。
여굉관층면적전형적효평개불동，문장통과분석미관층면상사회저층민음적빈곤취약성，이빈곤가호저어각충풍험충격적능력위시각래평개중아량국경제전형적적효。문장사용1996—2008년간5륜중국영양건강조사（CHNS）화아라사종렬감측조사（RLMS）수거，측량료중아농촌가호취약성수평급기장기변동추세，병재분해빈곤취약성적기출상탐심료량국불동류형적경제전형대농촌가호복이수평적장기영향。실증분석표명，중국경제점진전형보증료농촌거민적취약성수평축점강저，단취약성수평잉연교고，기중적풍험취약성근년래정상승추세；이“휴극요법”식적경제전형수연조성료아라사농촌거민수입수평적교대파동，단파동상재가이인수적범위지내，빈곤취약성수평흔저차총체상정하강추세。
The authors evaluate the performance of economic transitions in China and Russia from a micro - per- spective, rather than by conventional macro - evaluation methods, and analyze the vulnerability to poverty of the underprivileged population, which indieates the ability of the impoverished households to withstand various risks and maintain steady income growth from the opposite vantage point. Using unbalanced panel data from China Health and Nutrition Survey （CHNS） and the Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey （RLMS）, this paper measures and predicts rural households＇ vulnerability to poverty and its long - term trends in China and Russia, and delves into the long - term effects of these two different types of economic transitions on the welfare of rural households by decomposing the vulnerability to poverty, so as to achieve proper evaluations of the economic transitions. The comparative analysis reveals that China＇s progressive transition ensures the gradually declining vulnerability of rural households, but the level is comparatively higher than the Russian counterpart and risk - induced vulnerability has risen in recent years ; while Russia＇s shock - therapy economic transition brought about great but tolerable income fluctuation in Russia＇s rural households, the vulnerability level is lower than in China and has taken on a downward trend in recent years.