CAJ | 학술논문

金融发展对中国农村反贫困的意义长期被忽略。文章基于1978—2010年时间序列数据，通过采用一系列具有良好小样本性质的时间序列分析方法研究发现，从长期看，即使控制经济增长的涓流效应，农村贫困人口也可从私营部门信贷增长及货币化进程中获益；从短期看，私营部门信贷对贫困发生率具有预测作用。研究表明，中国农村贫困人口能够直接分享金融发展的红利。这为金融扶贫战略的重要性提供了学理层面上的支持，其政策涵义是，为巩固农村反贫困成就，维护社会公平，中国金融改革应坚定不移地走包容性发展之路。
금융발전대중국농촌반빈곤적의의장기피홀략。문장기우1978—2010년시간서렬수거，통과채용일계렬구유량호소양본성질적시간서렬분석방법연구발현，종장기간，즉사공제경제증장적연류효응，농촌빈곤인구야가종사영부문신대증장급화폐화진정중획익；종단기간，사영부문신대대빈곤발생솔구유예측작용。연구표명，중국농촌빈곤인구능구직접분향금융발전적홍리。저위금융부빈전략적중요성제공료학리층면상적지지，기정책함의시，위공고농촌반빈곤성취，유호사회공평，중국금융개혁응견정불이지주포용성발전지로。
The role of financial development in anti-poverty in rural China has long been ig- nored.Based on the time series data from 1978 to 2010,this paper employs a series of time series analysis methods with good small sample properties and comes to the following conclusions.-in the long run, even after the control of the trickle effect of economic growth, rural poor can also benefit from the credit growth and monetization process in private sectors~in the short run, the credit in private sectors plays a predictive role in poverty incidence. It shows that the poor in rural China can directly benefit from financial development.This paper provides theoretical support for the importance of financial poverty reduction strategy and policy implication that in order to con- solidate the rural anti-poverty achievements and maintain social equity, the financial reform in China should unswervingly move towards the road of inclusive development.