地域研究与开发
地域研究與開髮
지역연구여개발
Areal Research and Development
2014年
1期
109~112
,共null页
水稻 低温灾害 GIS 风险等级 区划 黑龙江省
水稻 低溫災害 GIS 風險等級 區劃 黑龍江省
수도 저온재해 GIS 풍험등급 구화 흑룡강성
chilling; GIS ; risk-degree ; regionalization ; Heilongjiang Province
根据风险评估理论,以灾害发生概率、种植面积和单产减产率分别作为危险性、暴露性和易损性指标,对黑龙江省水稻低温灾害风险进行评估.选取28个地面气象站1971-2012年气温资料和11个地市1986-2011年水稻单产和种植面积数据,运用自然灾害风险指数法、概率统计等方法,建立以危险性、暴露性、易损性为风险构成因素的风险评价模型,计算3个因素的大小并绘制危险性和易损性区划图.运用GIS技术计算黑龙江省水稻低温灾害综合风险等级,绘制低温灾害风险区划图.大兴安岭地区、黑河西北部、齐齐哈尔、伊春、双鸭山、哈尔滨为轻微风险区,南部、西北、东北为低风险区,中部、北部、绥化为中风险区,鸡西、佳木斯、鹤岗的部分区域为高风险区.评价结果对于正确认识黑龙江省水稻低温冷害的风险水平及制定水稻种植规划和防灾减灾有参考意义.
根據風險評估理論,以災害髮生概率、種植麵積和單產減產率分彆作為危險性、暴露性和易損性指標,對黑龍江省水稻低溫災害風險進行評估.選取28箇地麵氣象站1971-2012年氣溫資料和11箇地市1986-2011年水稻單產和種植麵積數據,運用自然災害風險指數法、概率統計等方法,建立以危險性、暴露性、易損性為風險構成因素的風險評價模型,計算3箇因素的大小併繪製危險性和易損性區劃圖.運用GIS技術計算黑龍江省水稻低溫災害綜閤風險等級,繪製低溫災害風險區劃圖.大興安嶺地區、黑河西北部、齊齊哈爾、伊春、雙鴨山、哈爾濱為輕微風險區,南部、西北、東北為低風險區,中部、北部、綏化為中風險區,鷄西、佳木斯、鶴崗的部分區域為高風險區.評價結果對于正確認識黑龍江省水稻低溫冷害的風險水平及製定水稻種植規劃和防災減災有參攷意義.
근거풍험평고이론,이재해발생개솔、충식면적화단산감산솔분별작위위험성、폭로성화역손성지표,대흑룡강성수도저온재해풍험진행평고.선취28개지면기상참1971-2012년기온자료화11개지시1986-2011년수도단산화충식면적수거,운용자연재해풍험지수법、개솔통계등방법,건립이위험성、폭로성、역손성위풍험구성인소적풍험평개모형,계산3개인소적대소병회제위험성화역손성구화도.운용GIS기술계산흑룡강성수도저온재해종합풍험등급,회제저온재해풍험구화도.대흥안령지구、흑하서북부、제제합이、이춘、쌍압산、합이빈위경미풍험구,남부、서북、동북위저풍험구,중부、북부、수화위중풍험구,계서、가목사、학강적부분구역위고풍험구.평개결과대우정학인식흑룡강성수도저온냉해적풍험수평급제정수도충식규화화방재감재유삼고의의.
The assessment and regionalization of rice chilling risk in Heilongjiang Province was conducted based on the theory of natural disasters risk assessment and using the probability of chilling disaster, cultivated rice acreage and yield reduction rate of per unit area yield as the three factors of hazard, exposure and vulnerability re- spectively. 28 surface weather stations＇ temperature from 1971 to 2012 and 11 cities＇ rice area and per unit area yield from 1986 to 2011 are selected, and natural disaster risk index, mathematical, probabilistic and GIS methods are used to build the risk model which consists of hazard, exposure and vulnerability. The size of the hazard, expo- sure and vulnerability is calculated and the maps of hazard and vulnerability are drawn. At last, the risk degree of rice chilling in Heilongjiang is assessed and its map of regionalization is drawn. The risk degree of Daxing＇ anling, northwestern Heihe, Qiqihar, Yichun, Harbin and Shuangyashan is slight; the south, northwest and northeast of Heilongjiang low ; the middle and north of Heilongjiang and Suihua moderate ; part of Jixi, Jiamusi, Hegang high. It would provide scientific references in accurately understanding the risk level of rice chilling in Heilongjiang Prov- ince, planning the rice-planting and preventing and mitigating the rice chilling risks.
