CAJ | 학술논문

利用湖南省耕地数据和社会经济资料，定量分析影响湖南省耕地变化的驱动力及其内在的驱动机制。从人口增长、经济与基础设施建设、工业化与城镇化、农业技术发展、农业结构调整、耕地保护政策6个方面初步选取驱动力原始指标，然后通过相关性分析、聚类分析结合主成分分析从这些驱动力原始指标中筛选出包括农业人口、第三产业从业人员、人均GDP、城镇化水平、农业增加值等在内的10个驱动力，再利用偏最小二乘法分析各驱动力对湖南省耕地变化的影响程度并加入政策因素建立了驱动机制模型。结果表明：对湖南省耕地变化影响比较显著的驱动力为人口增长因素、工业化与城镇化因素、经济与基础设施建设因素等。最后分析了各驱动力与耕地变化之间的内在驱动机制。
이용호남성경지수거화사회경제자료，정량분석영향호남성경지변화적구동력급기내재적구동궤제。종인구증장、경제여기출설시건설、공업화여성진화、농업기술발전、농업결구조정、경지보호정책6개방면초보선취구동력원시지표，연후통과상관성분석、취류분석결합주성분분석종저사구동력원시지표중사선출포괄농업인구、제삼산업종업인원、인균GDP、성진화수평、농업증가치등재내적10개구동력，재이용편최소이승법분석각구동력대호남성경지변화적영향정도병가입정책인소건립료구동궤제모형。결과표명：대호남성경지변화영향비교현저적구동력위인구증장인소、공업화여성진화인소、경제여기출설시건설인소등。최후분석료각구동력여경지변화지간적내재구동궤제。
According to the cultivated land data and the socio economic data of Hunan Province, this paper analyzes quantitatively the driving forces of cultivated land changes and the internal drive mechanism. Firstly, it selects the original driving force indicators from population growth, economic and infrastructure development, industrialization and urbanization, agriculture technology development, agriculture structure adjustment and farmland protection policies, and then selects 10 driving forces, including agricultural population, the tertiary practitioners, GDP per capita, the level of urbanization, the agricultural added value, from the original driving forces by correlation analysis, cluster analysis and principal component analysis. Finally, it analyzes the degree of influence and builds the driving forces model by means of PLS （Partial Least Squares）. The results show that the most significant driving forces are population growth, industrialization and urbanization and economic and infrastructure factors, etc.. The paper ends with an analysis of the internal mechanism between the driving forces and the cultivated land changes.