CAJ | 학술논문

文章基于2000，2010年省域数据，利用考虑空间异质性的地理加权回归（GWR）模型，首次对中国低生育水平稳定机制进行局域变参数估计，并考察其时间演变和空间差异特征。全域和局域空间自相关分析显示，中国省域总和生育率存在显著的空间自相关性和明显的局域集群特征。不考虑空间自相关性的全域常参数估计（OLS）结果显示，2000年，省域发展与民生改善和生育控制力度对总和生育率的影响系数分别为一0．0385和-0．0117，2010年，两者分别下降为-0．0147和-0．0076。考虑空间异质性的GWR模型局域变参数估计结果显示，2000年，省域发展与民生改善和生育控制力度对总和生育率的影响系数分别在-0．0738～0．0259和～0．0148～0．0028之间，2010年，两者分别下降为-0．0213～0．0075和-0．0083～0．0081之间。这表明2000～2010年省域发展与民生改善对总和生育率的内生抑制作用仍占主导，但影响程度有明显下降趋势，并伴随显著的空间差异性。这些结论增强了我国人口政策调整的省域差异化指导意义，特别是为分省（区、市）、分步骤启动实施“单独两孩”政策提供参考。
문장기우2000，2010년성역수거，이용고필공간이질성적지리가권회귀（GWR）모형，수차대중국저생육수평은정궤제진행국역변삼수고계，병고찰기시간연변화공간차이특정。전역화국역공간자상관분석현시，중국성역총화생육솔존재현저적공간자상관성화명현적국역집군특정。불고필공간자상관성적전역상삼수고계（OLS）결과현시，2000년，성역발전여민생개선화생육공제력도대총화생육솔적영향계수분별위일0．0385화-0．0117，2010년，량자분별하강위-0．0147화-0．0076。고필공간이질성적GWR모형국역변삼수고계결과현시，2000년，성역발전여민생개선화생육공제력도대총화생육솔적영향계수분별재-0．0738～0．0259화～0．0148～0．0028지간，2010년，량자분별하강위-0．0213～0．0075화-0．0083～0．0081지간。저표명2000～2010년성역발전여민생개선대총화생육솔적내생억제작용잉점주도，단영향정도유명현하강추세，병반수현저적공간차이성。저사결론증강료아국인구정책조정적성역차이화지도의의，특별시위분성（구、시）、분보취계동실시“단독량해”정책제공삼고。
Based on the provincial data in 2000s, using a Geographically Weighted Regression （GWR） model, which includes spatial heterogeneity, this paper positively estimates local varying coefficients of pro- vincial transition of mechanisms in stabilizing low fertility in China, and effectively analyzes its spatial-tem- poral pattern and spatial disparity.The results based on a spatial autocorrelation analysis of global Moran＇ s I and local indicators of spatial association （LISA） analysis, show that there is a significantly global spatial dependency and a significant local clustering trend for provincial Total Fertility Rate （TFR）.Thus, we should not ignore the spatial effects, including both interdependence and heterogeneity.The globally con- stant parameter estimation results, without consideration of spatial autocorrelation show that the effects of provincial Development and Life Index （DLI）and Fertility Control Index （FCI） on Total Fertility Rate （TFR） are-0.0385 and-0.0117 respectively in 2000; both decrease to-0.0147 and-0.0076 respectively in 2010. The locally varying parameter estimation results, which consider spatial heterogeneity in the GWR models, show that the coefficients of DLI and FCI to TFR are between-0.0738-0.0259 and be- tween-0.0148-0.0028 respectively in 2000; both decrease to between-0.0213-0.0075 and be- tween -0.0083-0.0081 respectively in 2010.This concludes that, in the 2000s, the DLI endogenous inhibi- tory effect on the total fertility rate is still dominant, but the degree of impact shows a clear downward trend, and is accompanied by significant spatial disparity. These conclusions reinforce provincial differences of China＇s population policy adjustments.