CAJ | 학술논문

房价波动对城镇居民消费的影响引起广泛关注.选取重庆市不同收入水平城镇居民的收入、消费面板数据,以及从重庆“一圈两翼”划分的区域消费差异进行比较,考察了房价波动对收入和消费的影响.引入反映宏观经济水平的人均GDP年度指数和储蓄额年度增长率作为控制变量,利用股票筹资额构造房屋销售价格的工具变量做实证研究.结果表明：房价波动下重庆市城镇居民人均可支配收入与消费支出间存在必然的因果关系,不同收入水平的城镇居民存在明显的消费差异.房价上涨对所有收入水平城镇居民的消费均有挤出效应,房屋财富效应则不明显,当期可支配收入是决定城镇居民房地产消费的最重要因素.提高居民收入水平、调整收入分配结构、加大民生工程投资,是增加消费支出的有效途径.
방개파동대성진거민소비적영향인기엄범관주.선취중경시불동수입수평성진거민적수입、소비면판수거,이급종중경“일권량익”화분적구역소비차이진행비교,고찰료방개파동대수입화소비적영향.인입반영굉관경제수평적인균GDP년도지수화저축액년도증장솔작위공제변량,이용고표주자액구조방옥소수개격적공구변량주실증연구.결과표명：방개파동하중경시성진거민인균가지배수입여소비지출간존재필연적인과관계,불동수입수평적성진거민존재명현적소비차이.방개상창대소유수입수평성진거민적소비균유제출효응,방옥재부효응칙불명현,당기가지배수입시결정성진거민방지산소비적최중요인소.제고거민수입수평、조정수입분배결구、가대민생공정투자,시증가소비지출적유효도경.
House price fluctuation on the influence of the urban consumption aroused widespread concern. A- dopting the panel data about urban residents＇ income on different levels in Chongqing and consumption panel data, this paper compares the regional consumption differences in districts divided according to the idea of ＂One Ring Two Wings＂ and thus examines the influences of house price fluctuation on income and consumption. Besides, the paper introduces annual index of GDP per capita which reflects the level of macroeconomic and annual growth rate of savings amount as control variables and carries on the investigation with stock financing amount as the instrumen- tal variable of house selling price. The result shows that： there are inevitable cause-and-effect relationship between per capita disposable income and consumption spending under house price fluctuation and also significant consump- tion differences among urban residents on different income levels. Besides the rising of house price has the crowding -out effect on all urban residents while the house wealth effect is not effective; the disposable income of current period is the most important factor in determining real estate consumption. Hence, raising the income level of resi- dent, adjusting income distribution structure, increasing the people＇ s livelihood engineering investment are effec- tive ways to increase consumption spending.