CAJ | 학술논문

随着后危机时代金融安全问题的逐级渗透，县域经济的抗风险能力和在风险控制的前提下实现可持续发展的问题也越来越受到重视。本文在系统总结现有县域风险问题理论研究的基础之上，运用宏观资产负债表方法编制湖北省通山县四大经济部门的宏观资产负债表和县域宏观资产负债表矩阵，并提取重要风险指标进行分析和评估，得到通山县整体经济金融运行是稳健的，但部门中也存在欠发达县域长期投资占款引发的期限错配风险、企业培育期的经营风险、家户部门金融资产结构失衡风险、公共部门财政薄弱的债务补给能力和跨部门的风险传导等问题值得重点关注，并从县域金融市场机制、企业融资渠道、财政自立、居民投资结构与县域综合考核体系等方面提出政策建议。
수착후위궤시대금융안전문제적축급삼투，현역경제적항풍험능력화재풍험공제적전제하실현가지속발전적문제야월래월수도중시。본문재계통총결현유현역풍험문제이론연구적기출지상，운용굉관자산부채표방법편제호북성통산현사대경제부문적굉관자산부채표화현역굉관자산부채표구진，병제취중요풍험지표진행분석화평고，득도통산현정체경제금융운행시은건적，단부문중야존재흠발체현역장기투자점관인발적기한착배풍험、기업배육기적경영풍험、가호부문금융자산결구실형풍험、공공부문재정박약적채무보급능력화과부문적풍험전도등문제치득중점관주，병종현역금융시장궤제、기업융자거도、재정자립、거민투자결구여현역종합고핵체계등방면제출정책건의。
In the post-crisis era, as the problem of financial security has penetrated cross the economic regions at all levels, the county economy＇s anti-risk capability and the tradeoff between risk control and sustainable development are receiving more and more attention. Until the end of 2012, there are more than 2850 county-level adminis-trative units in our country ; the steady development of the county region will undoubtedly have an important role to the whole macro economy. Traditional analysis ascribes the problems of less developed areas to the ＇ development＇ factors, such as the historical foundation, location, technology, human factors and so on, but to ignore the ＇ stable＇ factors or risk-relevant factors, such as government debt, credit construction, adverse selection and moral hazard as well as transaction cost, which are all caused by risk problems and have become a constraint to the growth of county economy. So it＇s necessary to give objective and accurate assessment on the county＇s financial risk conditions and test its anti-risk capability against macro negative impact. Based on the systematic and comprehensive summary of the existing theories on the county risk research, we find that the theoretical studies of county financial risk have not yet formed mature theoretical system and give limit- ed general empirical analysis. So this paper first gives a detailed introduction to the macro-balance-sheet method and its application extended to the county region. The county＇s macroeconomic balance sheet is based on the theory of macro financial engineering, industrial financial engineering and Regional financial engineering. By forming the macro balance sheets and making correlation analysis of the four major economic sectors in the county, we can eval- uate the risk conditions in the county region from both historical information and market valuation. Then we take the Tongshan County of Hubei Province as the representative object for empirical analysis. After years＇ field research and data collection in the Tongshan County, we try to make the four macro balance sheets of the public sector, the financial sector, the corporate sector and the household sector, by which we make analysis a- bout （ 1 ） the size and the structure of the general asset or liabilities ; （2） key indicators containing capital structure indicators, term structure indicators, currency structure indicators and so on to evaluate the potential risk; （3）the macroeconomic-balance-sheet matrix to obtain the overall risk level of the Tongshan county. From the sheets and in- dicators we have derived, we find that the economic and financial conditions in the Tongshan County as a whole is almost safe, but we should still focus on （ 1 ） the risk of term mismatch caused by the long-term investment in the fi- nancial sector; （2） The management risk of small and medium-sized Enterprises during the early-stage in the corpo- rate sector; （3） the risk of structural imbalance of financial assets＇ investing in the household sector; （4） weak fis- cal supply ability against debt in the underdeveloped county region in the public sector; （5） the debtor-creditor re- lationship and risk transmission across the sectors. Finally, we give policy suggestions as follows ：（ 1 ） by introducing the market mechanism to the county to liq- uidize remnant assets, so as to ease the pressure from the long-term loans in the banking system; （2） Standardize the business management of the small and medium-Sized enterprises to obtain more opportunities in expanding en- dogenous financing channels, as to reduce the risk of management. ; （3） more support is needed to help the county to develop fiscal independence and improve its fiscal self-sufficiency against contingent liabilities; （4） establish a multi-level investment system to promote the savings-investing change rate of the county region; （5） It＇s necessary to include financial stability index in the county＇s economy comprehensive assessment system so as to achieve the goal, that is in the context of risk control to realize the economic sustainable development.