CAJ | 학술논문

本文通过建立能够刻画个人、企业和政府行为的可计算动态一般均衡模型，定量地分析了在未来老龄化和城镇化的趋势下，基础养老金覆盖面扩大对经济发展和不同收入人群个人福利的影响。研究表明，基础养老金覆盖面扩大后，我国经济将从动态无效率状态转变为动态有效率状态。然而，这一过程会降低居民储蓄、挤出投资、抬高利率水平，扭曲劳动力供给，进而降低总产出水平，并且社会代际福利总体水平也会有所降低。分析结果表明，在现有人口结构老龄化和未来城镇化的大趋势下，全面覆盖的基础养老金制度在为我国公民提供保障的同时，将降低经济的整体表现和社会的总体福利水平。政府应当在推广基础养老金覆盖面以保障民生的同时，提高制度的精算激励，适时、适量降低费率水平，并采取相关的配套政策措施，降低制度赡养比，以缓解基础养老金体系拓展对经济和个人福利的负面冲击。
본문통과건립능구각화개인、기업화정부행위적가계산동태일반균형모형，정량지분석료재미래노령화화성진화적추세하，기출양로금복개면확대대경제발전화불동수입인군개인복리적영향。연구표명，기출양로금복개면확대후，아국경제장종동태무효솔상태전변위동태유효솔상태。연이，저일과정회강저거민저축、제출투자、태고리솔수평，뉴곡노동력공급，진이강저총산출수평，병차사회대제복리총체수평야회유소강저。분석결과표명，재현유인구결구노령화화미래성진화적대추세하，전면복개적기출양로금제도재위아국공민제공보장적동시，장강저경제적정체표현화사회적총체복이수평。정부응당재추엄기출양로금복개면이보장민생적동시，제고제도적정산격려，괄시、괄량강저비솔수평，병채취상관적배투정책조시，강저제도섬양비，이완해기출양로금체계탁전대경제화개인복리적부면충격。
As the process of urbanization goes further, the coverage of basic pension system needs to be expanded, having a long - term and deep impact on the performance of the economy and behaviors of individuals. Scientific measurement on these impacts can be used to evaluate the performance of the pension regime as well as provide the empirical evidence for further reforms. Therefore, based on the theory of dynamic general equilibrium, we set up computational dynamic general equilibrium model to model the behaviors of households, firms and government., we are trying to explore how the process of expanding the coverage of basic pension system impact the development of economy and individual welfare in the face of the trend of aging, urbanization and slowing down economy. The research indicates that compared to the case with on expansion of basic pension system, the efficiency of the economy will improve, however in the meantime, the expansion of premium paying and benefit receiving will lower the saving rate, crowding out investment, increasing interest rate, distorting labor supply and then decreasing the output and furthermore the total welfare will encounter a loss for all cohorts in the future. More specifically, by calibrating and solving the model, the simulation results show that, after the expanding the pension system, economy will be in the dynamic efficient state, in which interest rate in the future will surpass wage growth rate instead of the state in which interest rate is lower than wage growth rate, called dynamic inefficient state. However, the promotion of economy efficiency is at the cost of lowering long term saving rate, crowding out investment, decreasing the accumulation of capital and distorting the labor supply, etc. Simulation results indicate that capital accumulation will drop at least 30% and interest rate will drop 3% in the long run during the expansion of pension system. Besides, the degree of shrink of labor supply is more serious than that of capital accumulation, making labor supply relatively scarce to capital. This will make the wage rate and total output drop during the expansion of pen- sion system and simulation results show that total output decrease by 8% more. Finally, the analysis of individual welfare show that among the three agent households, only the welfare of the one who has already been covered by pension system is improved during the future expansion, while the welfare of the other two agent households will be hurt. To hedge the negative impact of the expansion of pension system on the economy and individual welfare, the following reforms deserve to be seriously considered. Firstly, the actuarial linkage of contribution and benefit should be enhanced in order to lower the dictions on labor supply and output and NDC -based reform is good choice. As strongly recommended by many researchers, the NDC - based basic pension system reform can promote the incentives and reinforce the stability and sustainabili- ty of basic pension system.. In fact, the research of this paper is also an empirical test on the necessity of NDC - based reforms, which also can be treated as the evidence for decision makers. Secondly, government should lower the premiums of basic pension. The real dependency ratio is far lower than the actual dependency ratio within the basic pension system. The high premium impedes people to join the system, resulting in the insolvency concerns of the system. Hence lowering the premium will increase the incentives and lower the dependency ratio, which will improve the solvency of pension system. At last, to meet the challenges of aging, gradually increasing retirement age and abandoning the single - child policy should be considered to release the pressure on the future labor force. By doing so, China can balance the current demographic dividend and future demographic debt and keep the pension system sustainable. In general, the framework set up in this paper can not only used to measure the impact of the expansion of current pension system on the economy, but also be used to measure the essential performance of pension reform alternatives. Restricted by the volume and theme of the paper, the author can＇ t extend this issue and hope to treat these themes as future research plans.