CAJ | 학술논문

能源效率政策在考虑产业侧重时不能只关注产业自身，还须从系统及结构的视角出发审视局部产业的能效提高对总体能耗的影响。本文利用CGE模型模拟分析了改善高能耗产业或低能耗产业的能源效率对中国总体能耗的可能影响，并比较了其影响方式的差异。结果表明，提高能效可降低成本从而促进能效提高产业的产出增长，因此尽管其能耗量有所下降但其中有产出增长带动下的能耗回弹，并在高能耗产业上更为明显；经济总体的能耗及能耗强度都更大幅度地下降，超出了能效提高产业自身能耗变动的总体贡献；形成反向的回弹效应并导致总体能耗进一步下降的原因是，能效提高产业的能耗下降抑制了能源产业的产出，减少了能源产业自身能耗以及能源转换中的能源投入．能源结构偏向于二次能源的低能耗产业尤其借助了这一反向的回弹效应；比较而言，低能耗产业能效提高的总体节能绩效优于高能耗产业。
능원효솔정책재고필산업측중시불능지관주산업자신，환수종계통급결구적시각출발심시국부산업적능효제고대총체능모적영향。본문이용CGE모형모의분석료개선고능모산업혹저능모산업적능원효솔대중국총체능모적가능영향，병비교료기영향방식적차이。결과표명，제고능효가강저성본종이촉진능효제고산업적산출증장，인차진관기능모량유소하강단기중유산출증장대동하적능모회탄，병재고능모산업상경위명현；경제총체적능모급능모강도도경대폭도지하강，초출료능효제고산업자신능모변동적총체공헌；형성반향적회탄효응병도치총체능모진일보하강적원인시，능효제고산업적능모하강억제료능원산업적산출，감소료능원산업자신능모이급능원전환중적능원투입．능원결구편향우이차능원적저능모산업우기차조료저일반향적회탄효응；비교이언，저능모산업능효제고적총체절능적효우우고능모산업。
When considering industry focus, energy efficiency policy cannot only see the industry itself, it also must, from the angle of system and structure, examine the effect of local industry improvement on overall energy consumption efficiency. Simulation based on CGE model analyze the effect of improvement of energy efficiency of the high energy consumption industries or low energy consumption industry on China＇s overall energy consumption, and compares the differences of between them. The results show that, the energy efficiency can reduce costs and improve energy efficiency and facilitate industrial output growth, so while its energy consumption amount decreased, but with rebound of energy consumption output growth led by the output growth, which is more apparent on high energy consumption industry; Economic overall energy consumption and energy intensity fell more sharply, beyond the overall contribution of energy consumption change of industries which experience increase of energy efficiency; Leads to the further decline of a total energy consumption, the reason of rebound effect is that energy consumption decrease inhibits energy industry output, reduce the energy consumption of the energy industry itself and the energy input of energy conversion, low energy consumption industry with secondary energy structure, in particular, relies on the rebound effect; In comparison, the performance of overall energy saving of low energy consumption industries due to energy efficiency is better than that of energy-intensive industries.