系统工程理论与实践
繫統工程理論與實踐
계통공정이론여실천
Systems Engineering—Theory & Practice
2014年
2期
282~290
,共null页
舒彤 刘纯霞 陈收 汪寿阳 黎建强
舒彤 劉純霞 陳收 汪壽暘 黎建彊
서동 류순하 진수 왕수양 려건강
供应链 外商直接投资 经济增长 EBA
供應鏈 外商直接投資 經濟增長 EBA
공응련 외상직접투자 경제증장 EBA
supply chain; foreign direct investment; economic growth; EBA
外商直接投资是供应链环节中的重要主体.论文在阐述外商直接投资在中国的状况及中国政府吸引外商直接投资所采取的政策与措施的基础上,运用极值边界分析模型(EBA),基于对数据的相关分析与回归估计选择了3个核心变量和5个条件变量,对中国外商直接投资与经济增长之间的关系进行了实证分析.结果表明:从长期来看,外商直接投资在一定程度上刺激中国经济增长,但这种刺激作用有限.从各个分阶段看,外商直接投资对中国经济增长的促进作用是不确定的.起步阶段与缓慢发展阶段,外商直接投资对中国经济增长的促进作用有限;快速发展阶段,外商直接投资能显著地促进中国经济增长.这种结论上的不完全一致,表明外商直接投资对中国经济增长的影响是与中国国情及外商直接投资在中国发展态势息息相关的,是有时间特质的.通过短期分析能更精确地更映外商直接投资对中国经济增长的动态影响,而长期分析消除了个别异常数据在短期的较大影响,从而体现动态影响的长期趋势,可见将短期与长期结合分析外商直接投资对中国经济增长的影响意义重大.
外商直接投資是供應鏈環節中的重要主體.論文在闡述外商直接投資在中國的狀況及中國政府吸引外商直接投資所採取的政策與措施的基礎上,運用極值邊界分析模型(EBA),基于對數據的相關分析與迴歸估計選擇瞭3箇覈心變量和5箇條件變量,對中國外商直接投資與經濟增長之間的關繫進行瞭實證分析.結果錶明:從長期來看,外商直接投資在一定程度上刺激中國經濟增長,但這種刺激作用有限.從各箇分階段看,外商直接投資對中國經濟增長的促進作用是不確定的.起步階段與緩慢髮展階段,外商直接投資對中國經濟增長的促進作用有限;快速髮展階段,外商直接投資能顯著地促進中國經濟增長.這種結論上的不完全一緻,錶明外商直接投資對中國經濟增長的影響是與中國國情及外商直接投資在中國髮展態勢息息相關的,是有時間特質的.通過短期分析能更精確地更映外商直接投資對中國經濟增長的動態影響,而長期分析消除瞭箇彆異常數據在短期的較大影響,從而體現動態影響的長期趨勢,可見將短期與長期結閤分析外商直接投資對中國經濟增長的影響意義重大.
외상직접투자시공응련배절중적중요주체.논문재천술외상직접투자재중국적상황급중국정부흡인외상직접투자소채취적정책여조시적기출상,운용겁치변계분석모형(EBA),기우대수거적상관분석여회귀고계선택료3개핵심변량화5개조건변량,대중국외상직접투자여경제증장지간적관계진행료실증분석.결과표명:종장기래간,외상직접투자재일정정도상자격중국경제증장,단저충자격작용유한.종각개분계단간,외상직접투자대중국경제증장적촉진작용시불학정적.기보계단여완만발전계단,외상직접투자대중국경제증장적촉진작용유한;쾌속발전계단,외상직접투자능현저지촉진중국경제증장.저충결론상적불완전일치,표명외상직접투자대중국경제증장적영향시여중국국정급외상직접투자재중국발전태세식식상관적,시유시간특질적.통과단기분석능경정학지경영외상직접투자대중국경제증장적동태영향,이장기분석소제료개별이상수거재단기적교대영향,종이체현동태영향적장기추세,가견장단기여장기결합분석외상직접투자대중국경제증장적영향의의중대.
Foreign direct investment (FDI) plays a crucial role in supply chain links. This paper aims to expound tile status quo of FDI in China and the policies and measures adopted by Chinese government to attract foreign direct investment. On such a basis, extrelne bounds analysis (EBA) is applied, three core variables and five conditional variables are selected in tile light of tile relevant data analysis and the estimation in regression, all empirical study shows tile relationship between FDI in China and China's econoinic growth. It has been found that FDI stimulates China's economic growth to some extent in tile long terin, but this function is limited. In each stage, the effects of FDI on China's econolnic growth are indefinite. To be more specific, in the initiative and slow progressive stages, FDI plays a linfited role in China's economic growth. In the period of fast development, FDI promotes China's economic growth significantly. This inconsistency shows that tile effects of FDI on China's economic growth are closely associated with China's domestic situations and the development of FDI in China, which is tin,e-oriented. The short-term analysis can precisely describe the dynamic changes regarding the relationship between FDI and China's economic growth; however, the long-term analysis may eliminate the effects of abnormal data in tile short term, and hence the dynamic long-term tendency can be demonstrated. As a result, it is significant to integrate the short-term and long-term analyses of the effects of FDI on China's econoinic growth.