CAJ | 학술논문

受日本核泄漏事件影响，国务院提出在核安全规划批准前，暂停审批核电项目．作为我国重要的清洁能源之一，核电项目的暂停审批将对我国2020年减排目标的实现造成怎样的影响，同时如何调整其他清洁能源的发展规划，才能保证减排目标的实现？为研究这一问题，构建了我国清洁能源发展的递归动态可计算一般均衡模型，该模型将核电，水电，以及其他清洁能源发电作为重要的能源要素包含于生产模块中，并基于2007年数据动态至2020年，对核电项目暂停审批下不同的清洁能源发展情景进行模拟研究．模拟结果表明：在核电项目暂停审批的情景下，我国能否实现2020年的减排目标与诸多因素密切相关，特别是能源消费弹性；而加快其他非核电清洁能源的发展，将有助于我国减排目标的实现．
수일본핵설루사건영향，국무원제출재핵안전규화비준전，잠정심비핵전항목．작위아국중요적청길능원지일，핵전항목적잠정심비장대아국2020년감배목표적실현조성즘양적영향，동시여하조정기타청길능원적발전규화，재능보증감배목표적실현？위연구저일문제，구건료아국청길능원발전적체귀동태가계산일반균형모형，해모형장핵전，수전，이급기타청길능원발전작위중요적능원요소포함우생산모괴중，병기우2007년수거동태지2020년，대핵전항목잠정심비하불동적청길능원발전정경진행모의연구．모의결과표명：재핵전항목잠정심비적정경하，아국능부실현2020년적감배목표여제다인소밀절상관，특별시능원소비탄성；이가쾌기타비핵전청길능원적발전，장유조우아국감배목표적실현．
Due to Japanese nuclear leakage, the State Council of China claimed to stop approving new nuclear power projects before nuclear safety program was enacted. Since nuclear power is one of the most important clean energy sources, how will this affect China＇s emissions reduction target in 2020, and how should we adjust development planning of other clean energy sources in order to meet China＇s commitment of emissions mitigation？ To address these questions, a CGE-based clean energy development model for China was developed in this paper. In the proposed model, nuclear power, hydropower and other clean energy sources were involved in production module as important energy inputs. Based on the data for the year 2007, the model was run up to the year of 2020 with different scenarios of other clean energy development. Simulation results indicate that whether or not China can meet emissions mitigation commitment under the scenario of stopping approving is closely dependent on diverse factors, especially energy consumption elasticity; however, accelerating the development of other clean energy sources willmake large contributions to China＇s emissions reduction.