CAJ | 학술논문

本文研究突发事件发生后不实信息的传播与扩散问题，首先，基于系统动力学的思想，提出了不实信息的动态传播模型，刻画了科普教育以及媒体报道对于不实信息传播的影响，分析了模型的稳定性态．为了克服静态决策的局限性，论文基于最优控制理论的方法，构建了社会效用最大化的控制模型，利用庞特里亚金最大值原理，进一步探讨得出了不实信息传播的动态最优控制策略．最后，基于模型推导结论和数据模拟，说明了最优控制的优势所在，提出了在应急管理中不实信息的控制建议与思考，为应急管理奠定了理论基础和决策依据．
본문연구돌발사건발생후불실신식적전파여확산문제，수선，기우계통동역학적사상，제출료불실신식적동태전파모형，각화료과보교육이급매체보도대우불실신식전파적영향，분석료모형적은정성태．위료극복정태결책적국한성，논문기우최우공제이론적방법，구건료사회효용최대화적공제모형，이용방특리아금최대치원리，진일보탐토득출료불실신식전파적동태최우공제책략．최후，기우모형추도결론화수거모의，설명료최우공제적우세소재，제출료재응급관리중불실신식적공제건의여사고，위응급관리전정료이론기출화결책의거．
In this paper, the dissemination of unconfirmed information after the emergency occurs is re- searched based on dynamic method. Firstly, the dynamic model for unconfirmed information spreading is proposed, which depicts the impact of media coverage and science education on the transmission dy- namics of information, and then the stability analysis is studied. Secondly, in order to overcome the limit of traditional methods of the static decision problem, the dynamic optimal control for the transmission unconfirmed information is proposed based on the theorem of the optimal control. An optimal objective based on the maximum social utility is established and the optimal solution is acquired by using the Pon- tryagin maximum principle. Compared with traditional control method, dynamic optimal control method has the obvious superiority in modeling. Based on the above generalizations, the paper presents some strategies for unconfirmed information spreading and puts forward emergency decision-making theoretical foundation and methodology basis.