CAJ | 학술논문

阻碍分散型可再生能源技术扩散的重要因素是其较高的采用成本，而随着居民收入水平的逐步增加，对这种新能源技术的采用行为也越来越普遍．基于元胞自动机技术，考虑到绝对收入水平和相对收入水平对居民采用行为的影响机制，将元胞划分为潜在者、等待者和采用者三种状态并定义了相互间的转化概率，建立了收入影响下的分散型可再生能源技术扩散模型．通过与太阳能热水器扩散数据的对比证明了模型的合理性，仿真分析表明，相对收入系数与等待元胞转化概率成反比，与采用元胞转化概率成正比，潜在者相对收入系数变动的边际贡献小于等待者；此外，研究还发现采用示范效应和收入敏感度是在特定收入范围内而非收入最大值区域是最优的，初始采用元胞收入水平高低对扩散进程没有显著的促进作用．这些结论对可再生能源技术推广和企业市场营销决策都有着积极的借鉴意义．
조애분산형가재생능원기술확산적중요인소시기교고적채용성본，이수착거민수입수평적축보증가，대저충신능원기술적채용행위야월래월보편．기우원포자동궤기술，고필도절대수입수평화상대수입수평대거민채용행위적영향궤제，장원포화분위잠재자、등대자화채용자삼충상태병정의료상호간적전화개솔，건립료수입영향하적분산형가재생능원기술확산모형．통과여태양능열수기확산수거적대비증명료모형적합이성，방진분석표명，상대수입계수여등대원포전화개솔성반비，여채용원포전화개솔성정비，잠재자상대수입계수변동적변제공헌소우등대자；차외，연구환발현채용시범효응화수입민감도시재특정수입범위내이비수입최대치구역시최우적，초시채용원포수입수평고저대확산진정몰유현저적촉진작용．저사결론대가재생능원기술추엄화기업시장영소결책도유착적겁적차감의의．
An obstacle to the widespread adoption of decentralized renewable energy technology such as mini-type wind generator or solar water heater is their high upfront cost. Contrary to the traditional methods, such as learning curves, this paper studied from the view of income effect which was further divided into absolute income effect and relative income effect. Based on cellular automata technology, we categorized three states of cells as potential cells, waiting cells and adopted cells and then defined their nmtual transformation probability to develop a model of decentralized renewable energy. Using tile diffusion data of solar water heater in China, we compared the simulation results with regression ones by Bass model in fitness and accuracy, and verified the rationality of our cellular automata model. With tile help of Logit model, we find that the coefficient of income effect is in converse proportion to the transformation probability from potential cells to waiting cells, but in inverse proportion to the one from waiting cells to adopted cells, which reveals the diffusion path of solar water heater in China. Furthermore, this paper also finds that the bandwagon effect is mostly obvious in certain income interval rather than in tile maxinmm area, and initial income level of adopted cells has no significant effect on tile diffusion process. These findings shed some light on the management decision about market segmentation and development.