CAJ | 학술논문

文章使用改革以来我国制造业行业面板数据以及考虑截面相关性的混合组均值（CPMG）估计方法，对我国经济短期波动是否通过全要素生产率和投资渠道对长期增长产生影响进行了实证研究，并区分改革不同阶段以及不同要素密集程度行业进行了比较。研究结果表明：在改革的前一阶段，我国制造业行业短期波动通过生产率渠道对长期增长有显著的正面影响，而对投资的影响不会显著为负；在改革的后一阶段，劳动密集型行业短期波动通过全要素生产率渠道对长期增长有显著的正面影响，对投资的影响显著为负，而资本密集型行业短期波动对全要素生产率和投资的影响都不显著。上述结论对不同的波动度量方法是稳健的。
문장사용개혁이래아국제조업행업면판수거이급고필절면상관성적혼합조균치（CPMG）고계방법，대아국경제단기파동시부통과전요소생산솔화투자거도대장기증장산생영향진행료실증연구，병구분개혁불동계단이급불동요소밀집정도행업진행료비교。연구결과표명：재개혁적전일계단，아국제조업행업단기파동통과생산솔거도대장기증장유현저적정면영향，이대투자적영향불회현저위부；재개혁적후일계단，노동밀집형행업단기파동통과전요소생산솔거도대장기증장유현저적정면영향，대투자적영향현저위부，이자본밀집형행업단기파동대전요소생산솔화투자적영향도불현저。상술결론대불동적파동도량방법시은건적。
By using the panel data of Chinese manufacturing sectors since the reform and an estimate method of pooled mean group considering cross-sectional correlation, this paper empirically studies the existence of short-term economic volatility on long-term growth through total factor productivity and investment channels, and makes a comparison at differ- ent reform stages and in industries at different factor-intensive levels. It arrives at the empiri- cal results as follows, firstly, at the former stage of the reform, the short-term volatility in Chinese manufacturing sectors has a significantly positive effect on long-term growth through productivity channel and has a significantly positive or not significant effect on in- vestment~ secondly, at the latter stage of the reform, the short-term volatility in labor-in- tensive industries has a significantly positive effect on long-term growth through total factor productivity channel but significantly negative effect on investment, while the short-term volatility in capital-intensive industries has no significant effects on total factor productivity and investment.These results above-mentioned are robust to different volatility measurement methods.