国际商务研究
國際商務研究
국제상무연구
International Business Research
2014年
2期
88~96
,共null页
后危机时代 实际汇率波动 FDI
後危機時代 實際彙率波動 FDI
후위궤시대 실제회솔파동 FDI
post-crisis era; real exchange rate volatility; foreign direct investment
汇率波动是影响FDI流入的重要因素。基于1994～2012年的时间序列数据，本文构建带有金融危机变量的模型和利用邹氏检验法对后危机时代人民币实际汇率波动与FDI流入的关系进行实证分析。经过实证检验发现，金融危机改变了人民币实际汇率波动与FDI流入之间原有的负相关关系，中国成为外资的“避风港”和外商规避贸易壁垒是后危机时代人民币实际汇率波动有利于FDI流入的两个主要因素。同时，人民币实际汇率的波动更加贴近市场实际汇率水平，会增加FDI的流入，有利于我国经济的发展与稳定。
彙率波動是影響FDI流入的重要因素。基于1994～2012年的時間序列數據，本文構建帶有金融危機變量的模型和利用鄒氏檢驗法對後危機時代人民幣實際彙率波動與FDI流入的關繫進行實證分析。經過實證檢驗髮現，金融危機改變瞭人民幣實際彙率波動與FDI流入之間原有的負相關關繫，中國成為外資的“避風港”和外商規避貿易壁壘是後危機時代人民幣實際彙率波動有利于FDI流入的兩箇主要因素。同時，人民幣實際彙率的波動更加貼近市場實際彙率水平，會增加FDI的流入，有利于我國經濟的髮展與穩定。
회솔파동시영향FDI류입적중요인소。기우1994～2012년적시간서렬수거，본문구건대유금융위궤변량적모형화이용추씨검험법대후위궤시대인민폐실제회솔파동여FDI류입적관계진행실증분석。경과실증검험발현，금융위궤개변료인민폐실제회솔파동여FDI류입지간원유적부상관관계，중국성위외자적“피풍항”화외상규피무역벽루시후위궤시대인민폐실제회솔파동유리우FDI류입적량개주요인소。동시，인민폐실제회솔적파동경가첩근시장실제회솔수평，회증가FDI적류입，유리우아국경제적발전여은정。
The exchange rate volatility is an important factor that can influence the inflow of FD1. Based on the series data from 1994 to 2012, this paper uses Clow testing and constructs a model with a variable representing financial crisis to analyze the correlation between real exchange rate volatility of RMB and the inflow of FDI. Through an empirical analysis, we find that this correlation turns out to be opposite. There are two main factors accounting for the positive influence. One is that China has become a shelter for foreign funds. The other is that the foreign traders want to avoid trade barriers. Meanwhile, we conclude that if the exchange rate volatility is further close to the real exchange rate of the market, it can increase the inflow of FDI which may be beneficial to the development and stability of our economy.
