CAJ | 학술논문

房屋拆迁能够给普通家庭带来重要的消费冲击。本文基于最新的中国家庭金融微观调查数据，就拆迁行为对家庭消费支出的影响大小和途径做实证分析。描述性统计和平均处理效应方法均表明，拆迁户总体上要比未拆迁户消费更多，但其消费具有异质性。拆迁后仍有两套及以上住房者各类消费均远远高于未拆迁户，而拆迁后变为租房的家庭其平均消费水平甚至低于未拆迁户。进一步回归考察发现，由于寻求社会地位的强度不同，不同类型的拆迁户面对的不确定性并不相同，从而就日后消费问题表现出迥异的行为特征。本文从拆迁角度检验了预防性储蓄理论的适用性，同时对缓解社会矛盾、扩大消费能力具有参考价值。
방옥탁천능구급보통가정대래중요적소비충격。본문기우최신적중국가정금융미관조사수거，취탁천행위대가정소비지출적영향대소화도경주실증분석。묘술성통계화평균처리효응방법균표명，탁천호총체상요비미탁천호소비경다，단기소비구유이질성。탁천후잉유량투급이상주방자각류소비균원원고우미탁천호，이탁천후변위조방적가정기평균소비수평심지저우미탁천호。진일보회귀고찰발현，유우심구사회지위적강도불동，불동류형적탁천호면대적불학정성병불상동，종이취일후소비문제표현출형이적행위특정。본문종탁천각도검험료예방성저축이론적괄용성，동시대완해사회모순、확대소비능력구유삼고개치。
Demolition, or just called Chaiqian, can bring great shocks to the expenditure of ordinary family. Based on the China Household Finance Survey（CHFS） dataset,the paper empirically analyses magnitude and mechanism of the impact of Chaiqian on households＇ expenditure. Summary statistics and average treatment effect methods show that, households experiencing Chaiqian seem to consume more than those without Chaiqian, but the former have heterogeneous traits. Households with over 2 houses after Chaiqian will consume more than those without that experience while renters after Chaiqian will on average have lower expenditure level than those without Chaiqian. To investigate further, we find that the difference of degree of seeking social status between renters and more - house families makes the uncertainty faced by households with Chaiqian different, leading to different consumption behaviors. The paper testifies the precautionary saving theory from the view of Chaiqian, and also gives suggestions for easing social conflicts and broadening consumption ability.