数量经济技术经济研究
數量經濟技術經濟研究
수량경제기술경제연구
The Journal of Quantitative & Technical Economics
2014年
3期
20~37
,共null页
基尼系数 总消费 边际消费倾向 蒙特卡罗模拟 多项式回归
基尼繫數 總消費 邊際消費傾嚮 矇特卡囉模擬 多項式迴歸
기니계수 총소비 변제소비경향 몽특잡라모의 다항식회귀
Gini Coefficient; Overall Marginal Propensity to Consume~ Monte Carlo Simulation; Polynomial Regression
本文以蒙特卡罗模拟为主要手段，辅以计量方法，研究不同程度的收入差异对总体消费的影响。最终得到以下结论：随着基尼系数从0增加到1，总体消费总体上呈递减的趋势，但递减的过程具有明显的非线性特征。在基尼系数从0增加到0．4之前，总体消费随之下降的幅度较小，且波动性很小。在基尼系数增至0．4后，随着基尼系数的增加，总体消费突然大幅下降，而且波动性也大幅增加。随着基尼系数接近1附近时，这种情况逐步减弱。
本文以矇特卡囉模擬為主要手段，輔以計量方法，研究不同程度的收入差異對總體消費的影響。最終得到以下結論：隨著基尼繫數從0增加到1，總體消費總體上呈遞減的趨勢，但遞減的過程具有明顯的非線性特徵。在基尼繫數從0增加到0．4之前，總體消費隨之下降的幅度較小，且波動性很小。在基尼繫數增至0．4後，隨著基尼繫數的增加，總體消費突然大幅下降，而且波動性也大幅增加。隨著基尼繫數接近1附近時，這種情況逐步減弱。
본문이몽특잡라모의위주요수단，보이계량방법，연구불동정도적수입차이대총체소비적영향。최종득도이하결론：수착기니계수종0증가도1，총체소비총체상정체감적추세，단체감적과정구유명현적비선성특정。재기니계수종0증가도0．4지전，총체소비수지하강적폭도교소，차파동성흔소。재기니계수증지0．4후，수착기니계수적증가，총체소비돌연대폭하강，이차파동성야대폭증가。수착기니계수접근1부근시，저충정황축보감약。
In this paper, the impacts of income inequality on aggregate consumption are studied based on the Monte Carlo simulation and econometric methods. We finally arrives at conclusions as following. As the Gini coefficient increases from 0 to 1, the overall consumption in general shows a decreasing trend with some properties of non-linear system. When Gini coefficient increases from 0 to 0.4, ag- gregate consumptions declines very slightly, and with very small volatility. When Gini coefficient is beyond 0.4, with the deterioration in income inequality, the total consumption falls dramatically, and the volatility is also very high. But, as the Gini coefficient is close to 1, such a phenomenon is gradually weakened.
