CAJ | 학술논문

1978年以来，我国居民消费率的变动特征表现为长期波动下降。为判断居民消费率的运行情况，根据代表性家庭效用最大化估算出最优居民消费率。研究表明，1978-1990年，实际居民消费率与最优居民消费率基本吻合；1991～2000年，实际居民消费率平均低于最优居民消费率7．8个百分点；2001-2010年，实际居民消费率平均低于最优居民消费率18．3个百分点。对居民消费率偏低贡献率的分析表明，城镇居民消费率偏低是导致整体居民消费率偏低的主要原因。通过考察预期收入、利率和效用函数改变对最优居民消费率的影响，分析了居民消费率的变动机制。
1978년이래，아국거민소비솔적변동특정표현위장기파동하강。위판단거민소비솔적운행정황，근거대표성가정효용최대화고산출최우거민소비솔。연구표명，1978-1990년，실제거민소비솔여최우거민소비솔기본문합；1991～2000년，실제거민소비솔평균저우최우거민소비솔7．8개백분점；2001-2010년，실제거민소비솔평균저우최우거민소비솔18．3개백분점。대거민소비솔편저공헌솔적분석표명，성진거민소비솔편저시도치정체거민소비솔편저적주요원인。통과고찰예기수입、리솔화효용함수개변대최우거민소비솔적영향，분석료거민소비솔적변동궤제。
The rate of consumption is based on the economic structure. Since 1978, the rate of resident consumption in China has represented the feature of long- term decline with short-term fluctuation. We estimated the optimal rate of con- sumption according to the representative households＇ utility function. According to the research we can conclude that the real rate of household consumption basically coincided with the optimal rate from 1978 to 1990; from 1991 to 2000, the actual rate of resident consumption was generally 7. 8% lower than the optimal rate; from 2001 to 2010, the actual rate of resident consumption was generally 18. 3% lower than the optimal rate. The analysis of low household consumption rate of contribu- tion rate showed that the low consumption rate of urban residents is the main cause of the low overall household consumption rate.