CAJ | 학술논문

本文构建了包含居民收人水平和实际汇率变动两个因素的国际出境旅游需求理论模型，并建立了个体时点双固定模型，对全球55个国家2003—2011年期间的面板数据进行了计量分析。在此基础上，预测了全球主要客源国出境旅游需求的变动趋势。研究结果表明：第一，居民收入和实际汇率变动是决定国际旅游需求的最主要因素，可以解释国际出境旅游需求的大部分波动现象；第二，国际旅游需求对收入的弹性大于对实际汇率的弹性，因此，在两个因素变动率相同的情况下，价格效应小于收入效应；最后，根据模型对未来国际出境旅游市场的格局进行了预测。本文认为，以西欧、北美为代表的传统出境旅游大国，其相对份额将下降，而以“金砖国家”为代表的三个区域将崛起：一是以中国、印度为代表的亚洲发展中国家；二是以巴西、委内瑞拉、哥伦比亚为代表的南美发展中国家；三是以俄罗斯、罗马尼亚、斯洛伐克、波兰等为代表的东欧国家。
본문구건료포함거민수인수평화실제회솔변동량개인소적국제출경여유수구이론모형，병건립료개체시점쌍고정모형，대전구55개국가2003—2011년기간적면판수거진행료계량분석。재차기출상，예측료전구주요객원국출경여유수구적변동추세。연구결과표명：제일，거민수입화실제회솔변동시결정국제여유수구적최주요인소，가이해석국제출경여유수구적대부분파동현상；제이，국제여유수구대수입적탄성대우대실제회솔적탄성，인차，재량개인소변동솔상동적정황하，개격효응소우수입효응；최후，근거모형대미래국제출경여유시장적격국진행료예측。본문인위，이서구、북미위대표적전통출경여유대국，기상대빈액장하강，이이“금전국가”위대표적삼개구역장굴기：일시이중국、인도위대표적아주발전중국가；이시이파서、위내서랍、가륜비아위대표적남미발전중국가；삼시이아라사、라마니아、사락벌극、파란등위대표적동구국가。
In quiet a long history,dominant outbound tourism countries come from West Europe and North A- merica. However, this situation has changed in recent years. Some developing countries, such as China, Brazil, Indi- a, maintained sustained and rapid growth rate of outbound tourism in the global tourism market and became the new big countries of outbound tourism. International tourism market structure will undergo profound changes in the next years. It is valuable for countries to manage its outbound and inbound tourism market by study the trend of interna- tional tourism demand of main countries in the world. This paper constructed an international outbound tourism demand model which included two factors： incomes and real exchange rate, and gave an econometric analysis by double fixed model of cross-section and period on the global 55 countries during the period 2003 ~ 2011, estimated elasticity of international outbound tourism demand for income and exchange rate, On this basis predict the global trends of tourism demand for outbound countries. First, this paper analyzed the affecting factor of tourism demand ; it is believed that the major determinant of a country＇s outbound tourism demand is income levels and changes in the real exchange rate. The impact on tourism demand by incomes of residents is called the income effect, and the impact on tourism demand by real exchange rate is called the price effect. When the two factors combined, they produce four possibilities. In the first case, when the real exchange rate appreciation and income growth, the outbound tourism demand will increase. The second case, when the real exchange rate depreciation and income growth, whether the outbound tourism demand increase or de- crease depend on which effect are dominant. If income effect is more dominant than price effect, outbound tourism demand will decrease, and vice versa. The third case, when the real exchange rate depreciation and income decline, the outbound tourism demand will decrease. And the fourth case, when the real exchange rate appreciation and in- come decline, tourism demand promoted by price effect while suppressed by income effect, so whether the outbound tourism demand increase or decrease is uncertain too. Base on the theory model, the paper then gives an econometric analysis by double fixed model of cross-section and period on the global 55 countries during the period 2003 ~ 2011, estimated elasticity of international outbound tourism demand for income and exchange rate. The results showed that： First, income and real exchange rate chan- ges are the most important factors of international tourism demand and can be explained by the majority of interna- tional outbound tourism demand fluctuation; Second, the international tourism demand elasticity on income are ex- ceed on the exchange rate, therefore, when the same rate of change in the two factors, the price effect is less than the income effect. Third, there is some period effect in international tourism demand, reflecting the increasing trend of tourism demand per capita over majority countries. Finally, the paper predicted the trend of international outbound tourism market. Indicate that the traditional structure of global outbound tourism market will be changed. Traditional large outbound tourism countries, such as United States, Britain and Germany, will undergo lower growth rate and its market share will decline, while the ＂BRIC countries＂ as the representative of the three regions will emerge： First, the Asian region. Although Japan, Korea are experience slower growth, but China, India, Malaysia, Philippines in this region is growing rapidly, China has become the world＇s largest consumer of outbound tourism, this position will be more stable in the future. In the long run, it is inevitable that Asia will exceed Europe, Americas and become the world＇s tourist center. Second, South American region, such as Brazil, Venezuela, and Colombia, Brazil is one of the fastest growth in outbound tourism demand in the world,is expected to become the first ranked 10 country in South American. Third, Eastern European countries region, such as Russia, Romania, Slovakia, and Poland. Russia will enter the top 10. Romania, Slovakia, Poland will rise further.