CAJ | 학술논문

价格监管的缺失是导致我国政府采购价格虚高的重要原因，也是“政府采购价格应低于市场平均价格”这一法律条文变成一纸空文的根源。本文提出了我国政府采购的一个价格监测理论模型，依据采购拍卖理论测算采购预警价格。与单纯的将采购价格与市场平均价格相比，这种方法更充分地考虑了市场环境和投标环境的竞争因素。对天津市政府采购中心2012年8月至2013年7月份协议采购商品的实证分析表明，该模型具有良好的拟合能力和稳健性。蒙特卡洛模拟实验表明，该模型对于异常交易的发现率明显提高。
개격감관적결실시도치아국정부채구개격허고적중요원인，야시“정부채구개격응저우시장평균개격”저일법률조문변성일지공문적근원。본문제출료아국정부채구적일개개격감측이론모형，의거채구박매이론측산채구예경개격。여단순적장채구개격여시장평균개격상비，저충방법경충분지고필료시장배경화투표배경적경쟁인소。대천진시정부채구중심2012년8월지2013년7월빈협의채구상품적실증분석표명，해모형구유량호적의합능력화은건성。몽특잡락모의실험표명，해모형대우이상교역적발현솔명현제고。
The lack of price supervision is a major reason for the artificially high procurement prices and it is also the resource of the impracticable legal provision that ＂ the government procurement price should be lower than the average market price＂. The paper proposed a new price supervision model which computes the procurement warning price based on procurement auction theory. Compared with the method of monitoring the procurement price using average market price, our method considers the competing factors of market environment and bid environment. The positive analysis of the goods in Tianjin Government Procurement Center from August 2012 to July 2013 reveals that the model has high fitness and robustness. A Monte Carlo simulation verifies that the model improves the detection rate of abnormal procurements. The model provides an efficient and liable precautionary and warning mechanism for the government procurement in China.